Bitcoin Bull Score Index Flashes Warning: Is Momentum Fading For Real?

Bitcoin's bull run hits a critical inflection point as key momentum indicators signal potential exhaustion.

The Bull Score Index—a closely watched metric among crypto traders—now suggests weakening upward pressure. This divergence often precedes short-term corrections, even within broader bullish trends.

Market technicians note declining volume profiles and weakening breakout follow-through across major timeframes. Retail enthusiasm remains elevated—perhaps too elevated for comfort.

Seasonal patterns also come into play. August traditionally tests crypto's resilience, and 2025 appears to be following historical precedent. Smart money rotates toward stablecoins while newcomers FOMO into altcoins.

Does this signal a major top or just healthy consolidation? History favors the latter—but never underestimate crypto's ability to humble both bulls and bears simultaneously. After all, what's a crypto cycle without a few 'I told you so' moments from traditional finance skeptics?

Bitcoin Indicator Signals Caution

According to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has shifted from a “Bullish Cooldown” phase to a “Neutral” phase. The index, which tracks overall market strength using a combination of trading flows, investor behavior, and derivatives data, declined from 70 to 50. This move signals that bullish momentum has weakened, leaving bitcoin in a more balanced state between buyers and sellers.

Moreno noted that “for risk management purposes, further softening in the index indicates price could go lower.” This means that while the neutral zone doesn’t yet imply a confirmed downtrend, any additional deterioration could increase the probability of deeper corrections. Traders are therefore closely watching upcoming sessions, as price action around the $112K–$115K support zone will be critical in shaping short-term direction.

The broader context remains constructive. Bitcoin has been in a steady uptrend since 2023, a cycle that has already delivered massive gains and propelled the asset to new all-time highs above $124K earlier this month. Many analysts argue that the market is now in the final phase of this bull run, where volatility typically rises and investor sentiment becomes divided between expectations of continuation and warnings of exhaustion.

As the month comes to an end, global macroeconomic factors—including interest rate policies, institutional inflows, and liquidity conditions—will play a decisive role. If Bitcoin holds its support and fundamentals remain strong, this neutral phase may simply represent a healthy pause before the next upward move. Conversely, if weakness persists, the market could be signaling the start of a deeper consolidation phase.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,837, after a sharp decline from its all-time high NEAR $123,217. The daily chart shows that BTC has slipped below the 50-day SMA ($116,158) and is now testing the 100-day SMA ($111,224) as support. This level has become a crucial line of defense for bulls.

The rejection from the $123K region highlights strong resistance overhead, which has led to several failed breakout attempts. The structure suggests that BTC has entered a consolidation phase, with the $111K–$116K zone serving as the immediate range. A decisive breakdown below $111K could open the way toward the 200-day SMA ($100,597), a level many analysts see as the final support for this cycle’s uptrend.

Momentum indicators also align with weakening bullish pressure, as recent candles show lower highs and lower lows. However, holding above the 100-day moving average WOULD strengthen the bull case, potentially setting up a rebound toward $118K and eventually retesting $123K.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView