Bitcoin SOPR Flashes Buy Signals: Short-Term Holders Hit Breaking Point

Bitcoin's Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is screaming opportunity—while paper-handed traders sweat.

The metric, which tracks realized profit/loss across the network, has plunged to levels historically marking prime accumulation zones. Meanwhile, short-term holders (those glorious weak hands) are getting squeezed like day-traders at a Fed meeting.

Key takeaways:

- SOPR dip suggests undervaluation—smart money's licking its chops

- Retail speculators face margin calls and existential dread (as usual)

- Long-term holders? Still stacking sats while Wall Street reinvents the wheel with 'digital asset ETFs'

This isn't financial advice—just the market doing what it does best: separating conviction from hype. As the suits finally realize Bitcoin doesn't care about their 'risk-on/risk-off' narratives, the real players are loading up. Again.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Under Pressure

Top analyst Darkfost has provided a fresh take on Bitcoin’s current market structure, focusing on the behavior of short-term holders (STHs) through the lens of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized when a UTxO is spent, making it one of the most reliable gauges of investor profitability and selling behavior.

At present, the STH SOPR remains stuck at the neutral ratio of 1. This means that, on average, recent market entrants are breaking even on the coins they sell, rather than realizing a profit or a loss. According to Darkfost, this suggests that many STHs entered the market late, likely during Bitcoin’s push above $100,000 over the past six months. As a result, they now find themselves in a holding pattern, waiting for price appreciation to secure meaningful returns.

Darkfost emphasizes that in bull markets, these dynamics often follow a predictable pattern. When STHs are shaken out, their SOPR typically dips below 1, reflecting selling at a loss. Historically, such phases have created attractive dollar-cost averaging (DCA) opportunities, as capitulation from weaker hands clears the way for stronger upward trends.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels in Focus

Bitcoin is currently trading near $115,133, after pulling back sharply from the recent peak at $124,000. The chart shows that BTC has broken away from its mid-summer consolidation, but momentum has cooled, with price now testing support around the 50-day moving average ($115,712). This level will be critical in the short term, as a sustained breakdown could open the way toward the 100-day moving average near $110,833.

Despite the recent decline, the broader structure remains constructive. Bitcoin has spent much of the past six months above the psychological $100,000 level, establishing strong long-term support. The rejection near $123,217, marked by the yellow resistance line, suggests that bulls will need more conviction to push BTC into new highs. A clean breakout above that level could quickly send the price toward the $130,000–$135,000 region.

On the downside, the 200-day moving average ($100,339) remains the ultimate line of defense. As long as BTC stays above this level, the broader bull trend remains intact.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView