Bitcoin Macro Top In? Skeptical Analyst Sounds Alarm—But Bulls Aren’t Backing Down
Another day, another Bitcoin doom prophecy. This time, a vocal analyst claims the macro top is in—just as institutional FOMO hits fever pitch.
Market psychology or missed opportunity? The king of crypto’s had more 'tops' called than a Vegas blackjack table. Yet here we are, 18 months into 2025, with miners still stacking sats and TradFi quietly recycling their 'tulip' memes into ETF applications.
Funny how 'imminent collapse' narratives surface whenever Wall Street needs cheaper entry points. Stay skeptical, stack responsibly—and maybe keep one eye on those short positions getting liquidated.
Analyst Maps Out Bearish Bitcoin Wave Structure
Bitcoin showed signs of building on in early August after bouncing off a low around $112,000. However, after its latest high at $124,128, sellers quickly stepped in, pulling the price down. The decline has been accompanied by fading short-term momentum. Although it might be too early to conclude, relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to point to a bearish divergence on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart.
Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades outlined what they believe could be the start of a larger ABC corrective structure for Bitcoin. According to the projection, Bitcoin may be entering Wave A, which consists of a five-wave corrective structure that could send the price to as low as $77,000 at the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
The roadmap of this price crash envisions an initial Wave 1 drop to $112,000, a brief Wave 2 recovery back to $120,000, and then another Wave 3 decline into the $89,000 range. After this, the next step is a Wave 4 retest break of $100,000 before reversing into Wave 5, which brings the ultimate Wave A bottom at $77,000.
Chart Image From X: CasiTrades
The accompanying chart posted by the analyst shows the wave counts with subwave precision. Interestingly, the analyst also pointed out that the ultimate macro target for the end of this correction is at $60,000, right at the golden 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This is at the macro level and can only come to fruition if the ABC corrective waves play out to completion.
A Bearish Tone Amidst Bullish Predictions
This analysis introduces a sobering counterpoint at a time when many forecasts continue to paint bitcoin as being on track for $150,000 and beyond. Even though strong institutional inflows and technical milestones, such as the realized price flipping above the 200-day moving average are bullish indicators, the bearish scenario from CasiTrades could still be valid.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum, the current correction could change into something deeper, making the $124,000 high not just a pause but the macro top of this cycle.
Although many cryptocurrencies have largely followed Bitcoin’s movements this cycle, CasiTrade’s analysis isn’t a bearish case for the entire crypto market. According to the analyst, if this bearish case plays out, it could cause the long-discussed capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into large-cap altcoins, some of which may surge to new all-time price highs even as Bitcoin retraces. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,203.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
