Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Shattered as New Market Dynamics Take Over – Experts Weigh In
Bitcoin’s predictable four-year boom-bust rhythm is crumbling under fresh market forces—and traditional finance won’t like what’s coming next.
### The Death of the Halving Hype?
Miners used to treat Bitcoin halvings like clockwork—cut rewards, squeeze supply, cue the bull run. Now? Macro shocks, institutional gambits, and DeFi’s gravitational pull are rewriting the rules. The 2024 halving barely caused a ripple—price action got hijacked by spot ETFs and Fed rate chess moves.
### Wall Street’s Trojan Horse
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF hoovered up $25B in AUM faster than you can say 'hypocrisy.' Suddenly, the 'anti-establishment' asset class dances to quarterly earnings reports. (Cue ironic applause from crypto anarchists.)
### The Verdict: Adapt or Die
This isn’t your 2017 Bitcoin. The market’s playing 4D chess while retail traders still think in hopium-fueled cycles. One hedge fund MD put it bluntly: 'The four-year model is dead—welcome to the era of reflexive crypto-economics.' Now if you’ll excuse us, we’ll be over here shorting 'halving season' merch on Etsy.
Halving’s Control Fades As Rivals Gain Strength
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, noted the halving’s supply shock is much lower now compared to Bitcoin’s early days, where the majority of the coins were still being mined.
Back then, cutting rewards had a clear and heavy impact on the market. In April 2024, Bitcoin’s price pattern broke from tradition.
It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) August 11, 2025
It had already hit a record above $74,000 in March—weeks before the halving—helped by the US approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and a wave of institutional buying.
Others are of the belief the halving still has a role to play, but no longer determines the price of Bitcoin. They talk about the increased importance of liquidity, ETF trades, and sentiment among investors and they point out these now carry the same weight as supply reductions.
Halving’s Role Shrinks As Market Hits Record Highs
Others feel the event is still relevant to miner economics and the long-term shortage narrative but has lost some of its power in influencing short-term pricing.
To them, halving is simply an element of a larger picture involving macroeconomic trends and foreign capital inflows.
Figures published by CoinMarketCap indicate that the combined cryptocurrency market capitalization hit a record high of $4.15 trillion, breaking its previous record of $3.80 trillion.
Trading has seen increased levels of action, with over $140 billion of cryptocurrency exchanged in the last day.
Some observers are warning against writing off the four-year cycle as dead at this time. Excessive Optimism often appears near market peaks, when many traders over-extend themselves and end up taking losses.
Others went even further and claimed the cycle was never a law of nature but a consequence of the original design of Bitcoin, controlled by retail investors.
In the meantime, the four-year cycle may be complete, according to Rochard, as halvings have little impact with 95% of BTC mined and retail, ETPs, and corporate treasuries leading demand.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
