Bitcoin MVRV Oscillator Flags $130,900 as Critical Sell Zone – Here’s Why It Matters
Bitcoin's next big test? The MVRV Oscillator just painted a massive target on the $130,900 price level.
Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) – the metric that separates diamond hands from weak ones – suggests this is where profit-taking could erupt. When traders see green, they tend to cash out. And this indicator screams 'take profits' louder than a crypto bro at a rooftop bar.
Will BTC smash through or get rejected? Either way, the charts are talking – and Wall Street's still playing catch-up.
Bitcoin Enters Expansion Phase As Market Eyes $130K
After weeks of tight consolidation below the $110,000 mark, bitcoin has finally broken out, signaling the start of a new market phase. The breakout above previous highs has reignited investor optimism, not only for BTC but also for the broader altcoin market, with many altcoins now pushing above key resistance levels for the first time in months.
This move comes amid growing anticipation of a weakening US dollar and renewed inflationary pressures as Washington adopts looser fiscal policies. The market is increasingly pricing in the effects of tax cuts, high government spending, and dovish political rhetoric—all of which create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Still, the macro backdrop is not without risks. US Treasury yields remain elevated, flashing warnings of underlying systemic stress in credit markets. This tension underscores the fragility of the current rally and the importance of monitoring fundamental shifts.
Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights using the MVRV oscillator, a model that compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. According to Adler, historical data over the last four years suggests that when MVRV reaches 2.75, Bitcoin tends to face its first wave of meaningful selling pressure. If the same pattern holds true in this cycle, Bitcoin could reach approximately $130,900 before seeing notable profit-taking activity.
While the current MVRV reading remains below that threshold, the model offers a clear signal of where long-term holders may begin offloading. Until then, the breakout sets the stage for a potential leg higher, with bulls now in control, pushing toward price discovery and a possible test of the $130K zone.
BTC Enters Uncharted Territory With Strong Momentum
Bitcoin has officially broken into price discovery after blasting through its all-time high resistance NEAR $112,000. The 3-day chart shows a massive bullish candle pushing BTC up to $118,683, representing an 8.94% gain in the last session. This breakout is the first clear sign of a strong bullish continuation after weeks of sideways consolidation below key resistance.
The chart highlights a textbook breakout structure. BTC respected the $103,600 and $109,300 support zones multiple times throughout May and June before finally gaining enough momentum to pierce through the upper resistance. The recent surge came with a noticeable spike in volume, adding confidence to the breakout’s sustainability.
Moving averages also confirm the bullish trend. The 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines remain aligned upward with increasing separation, suggesting that market structure remains strong and trend continuation is likely. Bitcoin is now trading well above all major moving averages, reinforcing the strength of the rally.
With no historical resistance levels above, BTC enters a price discovery phase. The next psychological target for bulls will likely be $120,000, followed by the MVRV-based resistance level around $130,900. As long as BTC holds above $112K, the momentum remains decisively in favor of the bulls.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
