Bitcoin Holds Steady Near Record Highs as Spot Market Fuels the Rally

Bitcoin's price action stalls just shy of its all-time peak—but don't call it a pause. The spot market's relentless buying pressure keeps the crypto king coiled for its next move.

Spot drives the bus

Forget leveraged derivatives—real coins changing hands at real prices are propping up BTC's floor. No synthetic longs, just old-fashioned 'buy and hold' demand from institutions who finally read the memo about inflation.

The ATH tease

Every 5% pullback gets swallowed by buyers treating $60K like a Black Friday discount. Traders whisper about 'overheating' while pension funds quietly allocate another 0.5% to digital assets. Classic Wall Street—late to the party but bringing enough champagne to spike the punch.

When consolidation isn't complacency

The charts show sideways action; the blockchain shows whales accumulating. Some call it a stalemate—we call it a spring loading. Because nothing makes bankers sweat like an asset that doesn't need their approval to appreciate.

Binance Spot-Perpetual Delta Reflects Cautious Leverage

One of the more notable on-chain observations comes from CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, who analyzed the prolonged negative delta between spot and perpetual prices on Binance. According to the analyst, this delta has remained in negative territory since December 2024.

That means the spot price of bitcoin has consistently traded above the perpetual futures price on Binance, an unusual structure during what appears to be a bullish market trend.

“When the delta flipped negative last December, Bitcoin had just marked a then-ATH,” BorisVest noted. He explained that this divergence signaled an aggressive buildup of long positions in the perpetual market, just before Bitcoin corrected to $74,000.

Despite Bitcoin reaching new highs recently, the delta still hasn’t reversed. “The sustained gap shows that Leveraged traders have yet to commit to the rally in full,” he added. This trend could indicate a phase of accumulation in the spot market, which historically precedes stronger price movements.

The analyst also warned that when perpetual prices eventually flip above spot prices, it may signal a shift toward a more speculative environment.

In such scenarios, sudden price corrections could occur if long positions are unwound rapidly. Traders monitoring the spot-perpetual relationship can potentially use this as a signal to adjust their risk exposure.

Dollar Weakness May Signal Tailwinds for Bitcoin

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a macroeconomic trend that could further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, the weakening US dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, is currently trading at its most significant deviation below its 200-day moving average in over two decades.

This decline coincides with rising US debt levels and has historically aligned with strength in risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Darkfost pointed out that when the dollar loses its traditional safe-haven appeal, capital often flows toward alternative assets.

“Historical data shows that these periods have consistently benefited Bitcoin,” the analyst stated. While Bitcoin has yet to respond in full to this shift, the trend could support a future upward move, especially if liquidity continues to increase.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView