Bitcoin’s Iron Grip Stifles Altcoin Season—No Rally Until This Key Catalyst Hits, Warns Analyst
Bitcoin's dominance is choking altcoin momentum—again. While ETH and SOL flirt with breakouts, analysts say the king coin's stranglehold won't loosen until whales shift capital. Here's the trigger they're watching.
Market veterans point to Bitcoin's stubborn 45%+ dominance as the dam holding back altcoin floods. 'Retail can't move the needle until BTC whales start rotating profits,' notes one trader. 'We're stuck until the big money blinks.'
The waiting game continues as altcoins bleed against BTC pairs. Some see opportunity—others see another cycle where 'degen plays' get rekt by Bitcoin's gravitational pull. Meanwhile, TradFi investors still can't tell the difference between a meme coin and a Layer 2. Progress!
Altcoin Season Stifled As Bitcoin Dominance Surges
The Bitcoin Dominance in the cryptocurrency market is tightening its grip, crushing hopes of an imminent altcoin season. According to a recent technical analysis posted on X (formerly Twitter) by market expert Tony Severino, Bitcoin’s market cap dominance has reached 65.72% with both monthly and Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings pushing above the critical 70 level.
At the time of the analysis, the RSI on the monthly timeline stood at 73.19, while the weekly registered at 70.58—both firmly in overbought territory. These levels typically reflect strong momentum and extended bullish conditions, indicating that Bitcoin’s command over the crypto market is still strong and growing.
Severino shared a dual chart view of bitcoin Dominance and RSI across the weekly and monthly time frames, highlighting candlestick structures that support Bitcoin’s ongoing upward momentum. BTC.D has been climbing since late 2023. The RSI values also remain comfortably above their respective Moving Average (MA) baselines of 67.31 and 65.42, indicating sustained strength rather than signs of immediate exhaustion.
As long as Bitcoin Dominance holds these elevated RSI levels across their major time frames, Severino suggests that altcoins will likely continue to underperform, further delaying the long-awaited altcoin season. The analyst emphasizes that meaningful upside for altcoins will not begin until BTC.D starts to wane and RSI readings fall below 70—effectively signaling a shift in sentiment and market strength that could allow capital to rotate to alternative cryptocurrencies.
Until such a pullback occurs, the analyst argues that the weekly and monthly BTC.D and RSI charts strongly indicate that any expectations of an altcoin season this cycle remain premature.
Dragonfly Doji Forms On BTC.D Chart
In another X post, Severino announced that the Bitcoin Dominance has potentially formed a Dragonfly Doji on the weekly chart. With four days left in the weekly session, the analyst notes that the distinct candle pattern is still developing but presently resembles the classic Dragonfly Doji, characterized by a long lower wick and a close NEAR the opening price.
Typically, this chart pattern is viewed as a bullish reversal signal when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating possible upside momentum. However, in this case, it has emerged during a broader uptrend in BTC.D, creating a more complicated technical picture.
Severino believes that the Dragonfly Doji could either represent a continuation of the current momentum or a temporary pause in market direction. If the candle evolves into a larger bullish body and closes above the 65.65% level, it may confirm further strengthening of Bitcoin’s growing market dominance relative to altcoins.
