Bitcoin’s Top Indicator Defies Bearish Signals—Parabolic Rally Still in Play
Forget the doomscroll—Bitcoin’s top indicator just flashed a stubbornly bullish signal despite failed parabola predictions. Traders clinging to ’to the moon’ hopium just got fresh ammunition.
Parabolic dreams die hard
When Bitcoin’s price action starts resembling a SpaceX trajectory, analysts scramble to call the top. Yet here we are—another ’imminent crash’ narrative crumbling faster than a shitcoin’s liquidity pool.
The institutional wink-and-nod
Wall Street’s suddenly rediscovered its risk appetite, conveniently timed with their own BTC ETFs hitting critical mass. How fortuitous that their ’measured optimism’ aligns perfectly with extracting fees from both sides of the trade.
One cynical truth remains: in crypto, the only reliable pattern is the financial industry’s ability to profit from your FOMO.
No Sign Of A Bitcoin Cycle Top — Yet
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Crypto Con shared a comprehensive technical analysis rooted in the well-regarded top bitcoin cycle indicators developed by DA_Prof. The accompanying chart revealed that Bitcoin’s current market trajectory has yet to reach the “cycle top” zone — a region that has consistently coincided with major market peaks in the past.
Da Prof’s technical indicator model synthesizes insights from thirteen time-tested on-chain and market metrics. This multifactor approach has successfully predicted past cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, making it a valuable tool in potentially identifying long-term market turning points.
According to Crypto Con, Bitcoin’s current price action and technical readings suggest that the flagship cryptocurrency may still be preparing for a final ATH rally. The analyst asserts that any potential cycle peak in 2025 will likely emerge only when Bitcoin enters a critical zone identified through the convergence of these thirteen advanced indicators.
The metrics utilized in Da Prof’s indicator model include:
- Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) Extension
- Net Unrealized Profit-Loss (NUPL)
- Market Value-Realized Value Z-score (MVRVZ)
- Calendar Seasonality (CSI: top near November 21)
- Puell Multiple (PUELL)
- Halving Seasonality (HSI: top near 538 days after halving event)
- Logue PolyLog Regression (PLR)
- Realized Price (RP) Extension
- Plus Directional Movement (PDM)
- Logarithmic MACD (LMACD)
- Pi Cycle Top (PCT)
- Transaction Fee Spike (TFS)
- Risk
Crypto Con noted that historically, when these indicators converged in the red-hot region, represented by the cluster of indicators in the lower heatmap section of the chart, the Bitcoin price experienced a dramatic peak followed by a significant crash.
However, in the current cycle, none of Da Prof’s metrics have entered the zone. Instead, the readings across the lower bands of the model remain comparatively muted, suggesting that market euphoria has not yet reached past-cycle extremes.
Parabola Signals Flash Early, But No Peak In Sight
While Da Prof’s top Bitcoin indicators remain elusive, Parabola signals, another key feature of crypto Con’s analysis, have flashed not once but three times in this cycle. These signals are historically linked with the early stages of Bitcoin’s explosive price rallies experienced during the previous bull markets.
Yet despite these alerts, Bitcoin has failed to enter a true parabolic breakout phase so far in 2025. Crypto Con has indicated that the May 2025 parabola signal is especially notable, as it coincides with Bitcoin crossing the indicator’s Parabolic Boundary.
This breach, paired with the absence of Da Prof’s indicator stack, creates an unusual setup. Emphasizing this anomaly, Crypto Con posed a rhetorical question: “No cycle top + parabola signal = ?” —- hinting that Bitcoin’s true bullish climax may still be ahead.
