Bitcoin’s Macro Trend Oscillator Flashes Warning: The Price Top Is Coming

Bitcoin’s macro trend oscillator—the market’s favorite crystal ball—just triggered a signal that historically precedes major tops. Here’s what the data screams.

The countdown begins: When this indicator flips red, BTC typically has 90-120 days before hitting its cycle peak. The clock started ticking last week.

Institutional déjà vu: The same pattern nailed 2017’s $20K top and 2021’s $69K ATH. Now it’s painting a eerily similar trajectory for 2025.

Wall Street’s blind spot: While traditional finance scrambles to ’understand crypto fundamentals,’ the oscillator cuts through noise by tracking one thing—the dumb money flow that always arrives late.

Brace for impact when the suits start calling it ’a paradigm shift’—that’s your exit signal.

Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model And Its Alignment With Bitcoin Peaks

The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a sophisticated tool designed by a Bitcoin analyst known as Decode on the social media platform X. The oscillator aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators, ranging from interest rates and global liquidity to industrial production and market volatility, into 17 carefully selected leading metrics.

These are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s major tops. A close look at the chart titled bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from DEEP red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin.

BTC Mode Configuration Fine-Tunes Cycle Top Prediction

Decode’s analysis goes beyond Bitcoin-specific indicators. In one of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index of the 2M timeframe, a long-term comparison is made between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Interestingly, Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances. 

In both instances, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion.

The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used.

As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300.