Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals $120K Peak—If This One Crucial Condition Holds

Blockchain metrics flash bullish: Historical accumulation patterns mirror previous cycles just before parabolic rallies. This time, whales aren’t selling—they’re stacking.

Key trigger: The $120K projection hinges on Bitcoin holding above its 200-week moving average. Break that floor, and even the most diamond-handed HODLers might sweat.

Wall Street’s watching—with the usual mix of FOMO and thinly veiled contempt for ’that internet money.’ Meanwhile, the chain doesn’t lie.

CVDD Metrics Hint At $120k Peak, But Only If $90k Support Holds

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is an on-chain metric that measures the total coin-days destroyed when dormant BTC moves, thus capturing the spending activity of long-term holders.

Basically, a surge in CVDD indicates significant profit-taking by long-term holders, which is often an indicator of overheated market conditions. Meanwhile, reduced CVDD action marks accumulation phases.  Based on the chart presented by Martinez, prominent analytics firm CryptoQuant extrapolates Bitcoin’s current CVDD at $34,154 into multiple layers, each representing different aspects of the bull market.

Firstly, there is the Accessing Tops, i.e, the black line which extrapolates the CVDD into an upper band that the price has reached at the major tops, such as at $20,000 in 2017 and $69,000 and 2021. Presently, the Accessing Tops is around $120,000, suggesting this could be the next market peak of this bull run. 

Another important LAYER in CryptoQuant’s extrapolation of the CVDD is the Accumulating Phase 2, the second-tier support band that has repeatedly underpinned price throughout 2025. It is presently positioned at $90,000, marking the first major support line for bulls. 

With the present Bitcoin price at $103,242, Ali Martinez warns that preserving the price support at $90,000 is critical to maintaining Bitcoin’s bull structure and enabling a potential rise to $120,000.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $103,573, reflecting a slight market gain of 0.09% in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by 17.92%, indicating a fall in market participation. 

Presently, the next resistance level stands at $105,000. However, Martinez has stated that major positive developments will only follow when a price close above $107,000 is achieved. Meanwhile, bullish sentiments remain high as illustrated by another impressive performance by the bitcoin Spot ETFs, which registered a net inflow of $1.81 billion in the past week.

With a market cap of $2.04 trillion, Bitcoin continues to remain the most valuable digital asset, holding about 62.8% of the crypto market.