New Bitcoin Whales Pay 185% Premium Over OG HODLers—Here’s Why It Matters

Fresh crypto whales are diving into Bitcoin at nearly triple the cost basis of long-term holders, according to on-chain data. The divide between ’tourists’ and ’true believers’ just got a lot more expensive.

The Whale Split

Newcomers bought near 2024’s ATHs while veterans accumulated during bear-market bloodbaths. Now, the two camps face wildly different psychological thresholds for panic selling—or diamond-handing.

Wall Street Meets Cypherpunk

Institutional inflows (read: hedge funds late to the party) are propping up prices, but at what cost? Meanwhile, OG whales smirk from their sub-$30K cost bases—because nothing says ’financial revolution’ like watching suits overpay for your bags.

This isn’t just a price gap—it’s a fault line. When volatility hits, which side blinks first?

New Bitcoin Whales Have Cost Basis Around $91,900

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed how the Realized Price compares between the two major sides of the whale cohort on the bitcoin network. The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor in the BTC market.

When the value of this metric is above the spot price of the asset, it means the holders as a whole are carrying a net unrealized loss. Similarly, the indicator being under the coin’s value suggests the dominance of profit among the investors.

In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of the entire sector isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific investor cohorts: the short-term holder and long-term holder whales.

The short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) make up the two main divisions of the BTC network based on the basis of holding time. All investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days are put into the STHs, while those who surpass this threshold mature into the LTHs.

The STHs and LTHs of focus here aren’t just any ordinary investors, but rather the “whales,” entities who are carrying more than 1,000 BTC ($103.3 million) in their balance.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for the STH and LTH whales over the past few years:

As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price of the whales who got in during the past 155 days stands at $91,900 at the moment. With BTC’s recent recovery rally, the spot price has gained a notable distance above this line, so the cohort should be comfortably in the green now.

That said, their situation is nowhere NEAR as good as that of the veteran whales, who have their cost basis at just $32,200. This indicates that there is a spread of a whopping 185% between the bottom line of the two groups.

According to the analyst, this indicates a growing confidence and FOMO among the investors, which is driving them to buy at even the recent high prices. This trend is in sharp contrast to the 2022 bear market, where the difference between the cost basis of the two groups fell to just 65%.

It now remains to be seen whether demand from the new whales will continue to be strong in the near future, potentially driving up the spread between the cohorts further. Back in the 2021 bull market, the gap peaked at 437%.

BTC Price

With the latest continuation of the recovery rally, Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $103,000 level.