Crypto’s Do-or-Die Week: Bulls and Bears Collide as Macro Storm Looms

Bitcoin teeters at $65K while Wall Street hedgies sharpen their knives—this week decides whether crypto’s 2025 rally has legs or gets kneecapped by Fed jitters.

• The ETF Influx Test: BlackRock’s spot BTC fund faces its first major redemption pressure since launch. Will the ’institutional dam’ hold or crack?

• Altcoin Purge Watch: Ethereum gas fees spike as degenerate gamblers rotate into Layer 3 shitcoins—classic ’bull market’ behavior that reeks of late-cycle froth.

• Regulatory Sword of Damocles: The SEC’s quietly updated crypto enforcement manual just dropped. Coincidence? (Spoiler: Never is when Gary Gensler needs a distraction from his Equifax-level email security.)

One hedge fund MD we spoke to put it best: ’Crypto either proves it’s the Nasdaq 2.0 this week or becomes another cautionary slide in our ’Digital Tulips’ PowerPoint deck.’ Place your bets.

#1 Bitcoin And Crypto Market Awaits FOMC Decision (May 8)

The Federal Open market Committee is almost universally expected to leave the target range at 5.25 – 5.50 percent for a third straight meeting. Yet Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference will be dissected for any hint that softening data could hasten a first rate cut as early as June or July.

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell reminded reporters on 16 April, signalling caution even as tariffs threaten to lift unemployment.

Governor Chris Waller sharpened the message: “I don’t think you’re going to see enough happen in the real data in the next couple of months, until you get past July.” Public lobbying from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for immediate easing has so far failed to sway the Committee, but any rhetorical softening on Wednesday would reverberate through bitcoin’s real-rate–sensitive markets.

#2 Ethereum Pectra Upgrade (May 7)

At 10:05 UTC, epoch 364 032, Ethereum activates Pectra, an eleven-EIP hard fork that stitches last year’s Dencun groundwork into a far richer fabric. EIP-7702 lets externally owned accounts delegate to smart-contract code, enabling transaction batching, gas sponsorship, passkey authentication and revocable spending controls without abandoning existing addresses.

EIP-7251 multiplies the maximum effective validator balance from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, allowing native reward compounding and validator consolidation that will trim network bandwidth. On the data front, EIP-7691 doubles blob throughput to an average six blobs per block (nine at peak), while EIP-7623 caps worst-case block size to offset bandwidth pressure.

Deposit-queue latency—an artefact of the pre-merge PoW re-org risk—falls from roughly nine hours to thirteen minutes under EIP-6110. In the Foundation’s own words, Pectra “augments Ethereum accounts, improves the validator experience, supports L2 scaling and more,” laying the rails for future data-availability sampling.

Vienna hosts Sonic Summit 2025, Sonic Labs’ annual showcase for builders, capital allocators and researchers. Chief executive Michael Kong, chief research officer Dr Bernhard Scholz and engineering leads will alternate keynotes with partners from Chainlink Labs, Vertex and the Pyth Data Association, mapping out interoperability road-maps and zero-knowledge tooling.

Organisers promise “technical deep-dives, networking and hands-on sessions” against the Austrian capital’s baroque backdrop. With 2025’s funding landscape far leaner than the exuberant vintages of 2021 – 22, attendees will measure success by concrete milestones rather than marketing gloss.

Hyperliquid today split spot and perpetual-futures fee schedules and began counting spot turnover double toward traders’ rolling fourteen-day volume tiers. Stakers now earn up to a 40% percent fee rebate if they hold 50 million HYPE, a threshold recalculated daily.

The venue emphasises that “all fees” accrue to the community, contrasting itself with more centrally controlled competitors. Maker rebates reach 0.015% for notional volume above $70 million, but only if staking incentives can coexist with the liquidity that high-frequency market-makers supply. The coming sessions will test whether the design lures depth without throttling activity.

Coinbase Global reports first-quarter results immediately after the US equity close. Consensus forecasts cluster between $2.09 and $2.15 in adjusted earnings per share, flagging a sharp rebound in profitability. With landmark litigation still moving through federal courts, analysts will focus on legal provisioning, international expansion and the revenue mix between trading fees and subscription products.

Management guidance on operating margin under an evolving US regulatory regime is likely to set the tone for after-hours price action and, by extension, crypto-equity beta for the rest of the quarter.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $94,777.