Ethereum Primed for Surge as Short-Term Holder Count Nears 4M—Here’s the Catalyst

Ethereum’s price looks ready to break out as short-term holders (STHs) flood in—nearly 4 million addresses now hold ETH for less than 155 days. That’s a level not seen since the last bull run.

Why it matters: STHs are the swing traders who amplify volatility. When their numbers spike, big price moves usually follow—up or down. This time, the setup favors the bulls.

The cynical take: Wall Street’s late as usual. While institutions still debate ’crypto winter,’ retail traders are already positioning for the next leg up. Some things never change.

Ethereum Retail Investor Inflows Support Bullish Case

In an X post on May 2, Burak Kesmeci postulates that Ethereum may be entering a prolonged price uptrend based on the short-term holders’ activity. According to the seasoned analyst, the number of ETH short-term holders or traders is headed for a particular threshold that historically signifies a long-term price rally.

In the ETH market, short-term holders refer to wallets or addresses that have recently acquired ETH, usually less than 155 days. These investors are usually sensitive to market trends and price volatility, often driven by speculation and quick profit-taking rather than long-term conviction.

Typically, a rising number of short-term investors indicates renewed market interest due to new market entrants. However, Kesmeci states that ETH short-term holders, presently at 3.92 million, must cross above 4 million to suggest the ETH market possesses sufficient bullish strength for a robust uptrend. Notably, Ethereum produced strong price rallies when STH numbers previously ROSE above 4 million, as seen in 2022 and 2024. Kesmeci states that as long as ETH short-term holders remain below this threshold, it may reflect insufficient market demand to sustain Ethereum’s current rally. Meanwhile, the number of Ethereum long-term holders has now reached 104.24 million, indicating a strong market confidence in the asset’s price appreciation prospects. A rise in LTH generally occurs due to coin maturation as short-term holders opt against selling for over 155 days.

Ethereum SMA 365 Presents Another Barrier

Alongside developments in the short-term holders cohort, Burak Kesmeci notes that Ethereum remains far below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365), suggesting that market bulls are yet to take full control of the market. As the name implies, the SMA 365 measures the average closing price over the last 365 days. It is used to indicate price trends and often acts as a resistance in bearish markets or support in bullish markets. Despite recent market gains, ETH must move above its SMA 365 at $2,849 to confirm any intent of a strong uptrend. At press time, Ethereum trades at $1,835, reflecting a price decline of 0.80% in the past day. Meanwhile, the asset’s trading volume is down by 15.01%.