Bitcoin Thaws Out: Three Catalysts That Could Ignite the Next Crypto Surge
After months of sideways action, Bitcoin’s engines are rumbling—analysts spot three make-or-break triggers for the next leg up.
The Halving Hustle: Supply shock looms as miner rewards get slashed—history says price follows scarcity (eventually).
ETF Tsunami: Wall Street’s billion-dollar inflows could drown out retail FUD—if the SEC stops moving goalposts.
Macro Melt-Up: Fed rate cuts might send ’digital gold’ moonward—assuming politicians don’t wreck the economy first.
Bulls whisper ’new ATH by Q4’ while traders eye leverage—because nothing fuels crypto rallies like freshly printed margin debt.
Three Scenarios Shaping the Road Ahead
In a QuickTake post titled “Bitcoin is warming up – 3 scenarios that could shape the next rally,” Adler outlined a set of possibilities based on current network data and previous cycle patterns.
He describes an “optimistic” case where the momentum ratio climbs above 1.0 and holds, indicating a potential rally toward the $150,000–$175,000 range. This scenario mirrors historical breakout phases observed in 2017 and 2021, where a decisive break in key metrics sparked extended bullish runs.
The “base case,” as Adler frames it, assumes that the momentum ratio stabilizes between 0.8 and 1.0, keeping Bitcoin in a broad trading range between $90,000 and $110,000. In this instance, market participants hold their positions but remain cautious about increasing exposure.
A more conservative view, the “pessimistic” scenario, would be triggered if the ratio drops toward 0.75. This would suggest that short-term holders may begin taking profits, potentially leading to a correction in the $70,000–$85,000 zone.
Adler emphasized, however, that with a recent correction already priced in, the optimistic and base case outcomes appear more plausible at present.
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Activity Signals Accumulation
A separate analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan suggests further support for a bullish outlook. Dan notes that Bitcoin’s current structure bears similarities to past accumulation phases observed earlier in 2024.
He highlights that in both January and October, rising activity from short-term holders—those who keep their coins for between one day and one week—preceded significant rallies. This behavioral trend has returned in recent days, which, according to Dan, often signals that the market is positioning for a larger move.
These patterns have historically emerged just before major surges not only in Bitcoin but also in the altcoin space. If current activity mirrors past cycles, Bitcoin may be preparing to surpass the $100,000 mark and transition into a renewed uptrend.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
