Bitcoin’s Profit Party: 90% of Supply in the Green – Bullish Euphoria or Bubble Warning?

Bitcoin holders are popping champagne—90% of circulating supply is now worth more than its acquisition price. The last time this happened, BTC was carving out all-time highs. But seasoned traders know: extreme profit-taking often precedes a reckoning.

The psychology of peak profits

Retail FOMO meets institutional accumulation—a classic setup for volatility. Coinbase premiums suggest U.S. buyers are driving demand, while Asian markets quietly take profits. Meme coins pumping? Check. Crypto Twitter euphoria? Double-check. All the hallmarks of a speculative top are here.

The cynical take

Wall Street’s latest ‘digital gold’ narrative conveniently ignores that 90% profit levels historically precede 20-30% corrections. But hey—this time is different, right? (Spoiler: It never is.) The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin’s overbought—it’s whether the coming dip gets bought faster than a Goldman Sachs quant can say ‘asymmetric risk.’

Profits Soar As Market Rebounds

The strong percentage of profitable Bitcoin holdings is during a recent market recovery, according to data from analytics firm CryptoQuant. Technical expert Darkfost notes that when Bitcoin supply in profit is over 90%, it generally represents the last phase of a bull market.

This phase usually sees large price rises before any correction takes place. During recent price drops, the supply in profit nearly fell to 75%, a level that analysts believe could have triggered widespread selling if breached.

Market Pressure Eases On Holders

The current context provides room to breathe for Bitcoin holders. Since the majority of holdings are in profit, investors are less pressed to offload their coins during times of market uncertainty.

This diminished pressure might assist in sustaining Bitcoin’s price stability NEAR the $95,000 level and gaining steam for future upside potential. As per various experts, this period of diminished selling pressure tends to lead to significant price action in cryptocurrency markets.

Some institutions have made some high-profile Bitcoin price predictions. Standard Chartered is predicting that the cryptocurrency will hit $120,000 by the second quarter of 2025.

Other market analysts have predicted higher prices, in the range of $200,000 to $250,000, before the year’s end. These are some of the predictions as Bitcoin traded at $94,900, just below the psychological $95,000 mark that has been challenging to crack.

Although the market mood is positive today, CryptoQuant cautions that history indicates a pattern of corrections after these euphoria periods.

Historical data from past Bitcoin bull cycles suggest that after such periods of high profitability, corresponding massive price declines usually ensued.

In previous cycles, the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit has dropped to approximately 50% at these times of correction – a characteristic of bear market situations.

The euphoria phase is not permanent, with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Youn Ju intimating such periods usually last from three to 12 months before the corrective action sets in.

The ongoing Bitcoin cycle has witnessed consistent growth over the past few months, driving the percentage of profitable holdings to levels that indicate both opportunity and caution.

As investors observe the $95,000 resistance level, many are asking whether history will repeat itself in another spectacular price spike before an eventual correction.

With 91% of Bitcoin currently in profit, the market is at a critical point that will challenge both bullish forecasts and historical trends in the coming months.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView