Bitcoin Futures Market Sentiment Shows Signs of Erosion Amidst Current Price Rally

Recent data from Bitcoin futures markets indicates a notable softening in trader sentiment, raising questions about the sustainability of the ongoing price recovery. The weakening momentum in derivatives activity suggests that institutional and retail participants may be growing cautious at current levels. Analysts are closely monitoring open interest and funding rates across major exchanges for further clues on market direction. This shift in derivatives dynamics occurs as spot markets attempt to maintain upward trajectory following last month’s correction.

Bitcoin Futures Sentiment Signals Cooling Conviction

In his recent post titled “Weakening Futures Sentiment Signals Caution Amid Bitcoin Rally,” abramchart explained how sentiment indicators have not kept pace with BTC’s recent price movements.

From November 2024 through early 2025, Bitcoin experienced strong gains, but the futures sentiment index peaked early and has since been declining steadily. Despite prices staying relatively high, the index now trends near the support zone around 0.4, suggesting increased bearish sentiment.

The sentiment index’s resistance is historically around 0.8, with support near 0.2. According to abramchart, the index hovering closer to support may reflect ongoing profit-taking, growing macroeconomic uncertainty, or investor hesitation around regulatory developments.

He also noted that Bitcoin’s average trading range between $70K and $80K suggests possible accumulation rather than strong directional conviction. If sentiment continues to linger at current levels, further consolidation or downside action may be expected in the absence of strong bullish catalysts.

Weakening Futures Sentiment Signals

“The chart shows that while Bitcoin reached significant highs, futures sentiment weakened, which can be a warning signal of potential retracement or at least a lack of strong bullish conviction.” – By @abramchart pic.twitter.com/zzSmUJsQ8Y

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 16, 2025

Binance Derivatives Show Bullish Signs Returning

In contrast to the cautious sentiment observed in the broader futures market, activity on Binance derivatives is showing signs of renewed optimism.

Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted a shift in the Binance taker buy/sell ratio—a metric used to measure which side, buyers or sellers, is dominating trading volume on the exchange’s derivatives platform.

According to Darkfost, the 30-day exponential moving average of this ratio had remained below 1 for much of 2025, indicating sustained bearish sentiment.

However, recent readings show a return to neutral territory, with bullish activity picking up. The ratio trending above 1 indicates buyer dominance, and current data suggests that long traders are becoming more active again.

Although this doesn’t guarantee a market reversal, it may signal short-term momentum returning in favor of bulls, especially on trading venues like Binance that play a key role in crypto price discovery.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView