Bitcoin’s Price Surge Fails to Stir Whales—Strategic Patience or Impending Move?

As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory in early 2025, on-chain data reveals a surprising lack of significant activity from large holders. Market analysts observe that whale wallets remain conspicuously inactive despite favorable price action, suggesting either long-term accumulation strategies or preparation for a major market move. This behavior contrasts sharply with retail investor enthusiasm, creating an intriguing divergence in market participation patterns during the current rally.

Bitcoin Whales Show Restraint as Market Climbs

As Bitcoin finds its footing in upward momentum, a new analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost suggests that large holders on Binance—one of the most active crypto exchanges—are responding to macroeconomic uncertainty with a cautious, but notably non-reactive, approach.

The insights were detailed in a post titled “How Are Binance Whales Reacting to Market Uncertainty?” which examined key on-chain metrics.

According to Darkfost, two primary indicators reveal the evolving behavior of Binance whales. The first, the Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), compares the top 10 inflows to total inflows on Binance to gauge whale involvement.

A rising 365-day moving average (DMA) for the EWR reflects a growing concentration of inflows from large holders over time, indicating their stronger influence during long-term trends.

However, a recent decline in the 30DMA points to reduced short-term activity. This suggests that whales may be taking a step back from active trading, neither selling aggressively nor showing signs of panic.

The second metric, Whale to Exchange Flow, analyzes the value of whale inflows to Binance over a 30-day period. Here too, the trend is down—falling over $3 billion, mirroring similar drawdowns observed during past corrections in 2024.

Combined, these signals suggest that Binance whales are opting to hold their positions rather than sell into current market conditions, potentially signaling confidence in longer-term prospects despite ongoing uncertainty.

Buying Strength Persists Despite Uncertain Outlook

In a related CryptoQuant post, analyst Mignolet highlighted a continued pattern of buying strength on Binance. According to the analyst, the market buy ratio—an indicator tracking the volume of market buy orders—has not only remained intact but has recently surpassed previous highs.

This trend highlights persistent demand despite recent market corrections and volatility. The recurring nature of this pattern suggests that there is underlying buyer strength even as external macroeconomic forces, such as trade policies and regulatory shifts, continue to influence sentiment.

Historically, a sustained increase in the buy ratio has preceded medium-term rallies, although confirmation of a new trend will require follow-through in both price action and volume metrics.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView