Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $100K, Warns Arthur Hayes – Here’s Why
- Why Is Arthur Hayes Betting on a Bitcoin Correction?
- Institutional Inflows vs. Macro Jitters: Who Wins?
- Are Bitcoin Cycles Really Dead?
- FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom Fund, predicts bitcoin (BTC) may retreat to $100,000 amid macroeconomic headwinds, citing weak U.S. labor data and slowing credit growth. Hayes has already reduced his crypto exposure, selling millions in ETH, ENA, and PEPE. Meanwhile, institutional inflows and ETF demand continue to buoy the market, but altcoin participation remains lackluster. Is this a temporary pullback or the end of the bull run? Let’s dive in.
Why Is Arthur Hayes Betting on a Bitcoin Correction?
Arthur Hayes isn’t just another crypto permabull. The Maelstrom Fund CIO recently offloaded $8.32M in ethereum (ETH), $4.62M in Ethena (ENA), and $414K in Pepe (PEPE), shifting 80% of his holdings to stablecoins like USDC. Why the cold feet? Hayes points to two red flags:
- Weak U.S. Jobs Data: July’s non-farm payrolls added just 73K jobs—far below expectations, sparking recession fears.
- Credit Crunch: Major economies aren’t generating enough credit to sustain nominal GDP growth.
“$BTC tests $100K, $ETH tests $3K,”on August 2, 2025. A drop to $100K WOULD mark an 18.7% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $123K on July 14.
Institutional Inflows vs. Macro Jitters: Who Wins?
While Hayes hedges, Wall Street keeps stacking sats. Corporate treasuries have allocated $86B to crypto in 2025, with JPMorgan reporting $60B in fresh capital inflows—outpacing private equity investments. Ethereum ETFs are driving institutional demand, with ETH up 50% in July alone.
But here’s the catch: Bitcoin’s dominance still hovers above 60%, and the Altcoin Season Index sits at a meager 36. “The capital rotation into mid-cap tokens just isn’t happening,” notes BTCC analyst Mark Chen. “It’s a two-horse race between BTC and ETH.”
Are Bitcoin Cycles Really Dead?
Some argue this isn’t your grandpa’s crypto market. Eli Nagar, CEO of Braiins Mining, declares:Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas highlights BTC’s plummeting volatility since BlackRock’s ETF application in 2023.
Yet Hayes’ warning echoes like a halftime buzzer. If nominal GDP growth stalls, even $100K BTC might look optimistic. “The Fed’s tariff bill comes due in Q3,” he cautions.
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
How low could Bitcoin drop?
Arthur Hayes predicts $100K, a 18.7% drop from its $123K peak. ETH could fall to $3K.
Why is Hayes selling crypto?
Weak U.S. jobs data and slowing credit growth signal macroeconomic risks.
Are institutions still buying Bitcoin?
Yes—corporate treasuries added $86B in 2025, per JPMorgan data.
Is altcoin season coming?
Unlikely soon. The Altcoin Season Index is just 36, showing capital remains concentrated in BTC/ETH.
