Gerresheimer Stock Crisis: Short Sellers, MDAX Exit, and Accounting Scandals Rock Investor Confidence
- Why Is Gerresheimer Being Kicked Out of the MDAX?
- Short Seller Bombshell: Morpheus Research’s Accounting Allegations
- Technical Analysis: How Low Can It Go?
- Fundamental Concerns: Cash Flow or Accounting Mirage?
- FAQ: Your Burning Gerresheimer Questions Answered
Gerresheimer AG (GXI), the Düsseldorf-based packaging specialist, is facing a perfect storm of challenges as short-seller attacks, an MDAX demotion, and accounting irregularities erode market trust. With shares down 61.48% YTD and a looming SDAX transition on December 22, 2025, analysts warn of further downside. This DEEP dive explores the key issues, technical outlook, and whether this fallen star could rebound—or if it’s time to cut losses.
Why Is Gerresheimer Being Kicked Out of the MDAX?
The Deutsche Börse’s decision to relegate Gerresheimer to the SDAX effective December 22, 2025, triggers mechanical selling pressure. Index-tracking funds and ETFs must dump approximately €287 million in shares—equivalent to 20 days’ average trading volume. This comes as the stock flirts with 52-week lows at €27.04, a far cry from its 2024 peak of €70.12. Market capitalization now stands at just €2.3 billion, below MDAX thresholds. Historical data shows such forced selling typically creates 5-7% additional downside within two weeks of index changes.
Short Seller Bombshell: Morpheus Research’s Accounting Allegations
Morpheus Research’s scathing November 2025 report accused Gerresheimer of "aggressive revenue recognition" through "bill-and-hold" transactions—recording sales before products shipped to distributors. Their analysis suggests this inflated 2024 revenue by 12-15%. Compounding worries, the Bormioli acquisition (Q4 2024) pushed net debt to EBITDA to 3.8x versus management’s 2.5x target. The BaFin has since launched a probe—though Gerresheimer insists its accounting complies with IFRS. Short interest now represents 14.2% of float, up from 4.7% pre-report.
Technical Analysis: How Low Can It Go?
TradingView charts reveal a textbook breakdown:
- RSI (14-day): 17.7 (deepest oversold since 2018)
- Support: €25.50 (2020 COVID low) → €22.80 (2016 Brexit level)
- Volume: 3-month average up 47% vs. 2024, confirming distribution
Bernstein’s €25.68 target implies 5% further downside, while UBS’s €29.00 assumes accounting concerns fade—a risky bet given BaFin investigations typically last 6-18 months.
Fundamental Concerns: Cash Flow or Accounting Mirage?
Gerresheimer’s H1 2025 report shows troubling trends:
| Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | €86M | €142M | -39.4% |
| Days Sales Outstanding | 68 | 53 | +28% |
| Inventory Turnover | 3.1x | 4.4x | -29.5% |
The BTCC analytics team notes: "When receivables and inventories rise faster than sales—especially amid bill-and-hold questions—it’s a classic red flag."
FAQ: Your Burning Gerresheimer Questions Answered
Should I buy Gerresheimer stock now?
With index-related selling pressure imminent and accounting uncertainties unresolved, most analysts recommend waiting for BaFin clarity. The BTCC technical team suggests watching for stabilization above €25.50 before considering entry.
How long will the BaFin investigation take?
Historical precedents (e.g., Wirecard, Steinhoff) show such probes average 11 months. However, Gerresheimer’s case involves complex cross-border transactions that could extend timelines.
What’s the bull case for Gerresheimer?
Bulls argue the selloff overreacts to technical factors (index changes) and unproven allegations. At 7.2x EV/EBITDA versus 10.3x sector average, any positive BaFin news could spark a sharp rebound.
