Crypto Market Still Gripped by Fear Despite Trump-Xi Trade Deal – What’s Holding Back the Rally?

• Why Isn't the Market Responding to Positive News?
• The Ghost of October 11 Still Haunts the Market
• Why Macro Good News Isn't Enough
• Prices Tell the Same Story
• Could This Be the Start of a New Cycle?
• The Million-Dollar Question
• FAQ: Crypto Market Sentiment After Trump-Xi Deal

The cryptocurrency market remains stuck in "Fear" territory despite the recent trade agreement between the US and China, with Bitcoin barely moving above $110,000 and altcoins showing minimal reaction. Here's why traders aren't celebrating yet.

Why Isn't the Market Responding to Positive News?

Normally, a clear trade agreement between Washington and Beijing would breathe life into risk assets. But this time, the effect has been barely noticeable. The crypto fear and greed index only inched up from 33 to 37 following the announcement – still solidly in "Fear" territory. There's been no buying frenzy, no short squeeze, and no meaningful revaluation of altcoins.

According to TradingView data, the market is still licking its wounds from the October 11 crash that saw nearly $19 billion liquidated in 24 hours. Many traders believe they've seen the bottom, but they're still waiting for confirmation through a sustained rebound.

The Ghost of October 11 Still Haunts the Market

October 11 is becoming a reference point that many trading desks describe as "one of those days we'll call the bottom in hindsight." What does this mean? The exact bottom might not have been that day, but it marked when most fragile positions got wiped out.

The problem is the market hasn't had time to rebuild depth. Those who suffered liquidations need to reload, cautious traders want to see several green closes in a row, and institutions are waiting to see if the trade deal will hold through 2026. Until this rebuilding happens, sentiment remains stuck in fear – even with good news.

Why Macro Good News Isn't Enough

The Trump-Xi deal removed a major uncertainty – the tariff threat that destroyed liquidity in mid-October. In another context, the market might have used this to return to "Neutral" or "Greed." But not this time.

As BTCC analysts noted, the October 11 crash revealed three deeper issues: empty order books, missing market makers, and over-leveraged long positions. Until these are fixed, even good macro news can't spark a sustained rally.

Prices Tell the Same Story

Bitcoin hovers around $110,000 (up just 0.5% in 24 hours) and Ether around $3,900 – hardly the reaction you'd expect to a historic deal. This resembles consolidation patterns after previous major crashes.

CoinMarketCap data shows trading volumes remain subdued, suggesting most participants are watching from the sidelines. The market got burned by previous TRUMP headlines that didn't pan out, and traders now want to see:

• Dollar stability
• US stock market confirmation
• Bitcoin breaking $112,000-$113,000 with volume

Could This Be the Start of a New Cycle?

There's one optimistic sign: if October 11 becomes recognized as the cycle bottom, we might be in that awkward phase where prices stop making new lows but sentiment remains fearful because everyone remembers the pain. Historically, this precedes more consistent upward movement.

In other words, the market could be at the start of a new uptrend while still in "Fear" territory. This isn't contradictory – it's actually healthy. It means any rise happens without euphoria, preventing a snowball effect that leads to sharp pullbacks.

The Million-Dollar Question

The binary outcome now is simple: Can the market convert this macro good news into sustained buying? If yes, the fear index will quickly return to "Neutral" then "Greed." If no, it means October's shock ran deeper than expected, and we need more consolidation before the next leg up.

For now, prices, volumes, and sentiment agree: the Trump-Xi deal removes risk but doesn't yet create opportunity. As one veteran trader told me, "It's like getting painkillers when you needed surgery – helpful, but not the solution."

FAQ: Crypto Market Sentiment After Trump-Xi Deal

Why isn't the crypto market rallying after the trade deal?

The market is still recovering from the October 11 crash that liquidated $19 billion. Traders want to see more confirmation before committing to new positions.

What would signal a true market recovery?

Key signs would include bitcoin holding above $112,000 with volume, order book depth returning, and several consecutive green closes.

Is this fear normal after a market crash?

Yes, historically markets often consolidate in fear after major crashes even as prices stabilize, creating the foundation for the next uptrend.

How long might this fear period last?

Past cycles suggest anywhere from weeks to months, depending on how quickly liquidity returns to the market.