Dollar at R$5.30 and Government Defeat in Congress: Top Finance Stories of the Week (October 2025)
- Why the Dollar at R$5.30 Is Unsustainable, According to Lifetime’s Chief Economist
- Agribusiness’s “Golden Days” Are Over: Santander Director Warns of Unique Crisis
- New Crypto Tax Rules: Fixed 18% Rate and End of Exemptions by 2026
- Dividend Picks: Bradespar, Petrobras, and 8 Others for October
- Real Estate Fund Hit by Ambipar Default, Dividends Slashed
- Q&A: Key Takeaways from This Week’s Financial News
This week’s financial headlines were dominated by the Brazilian dollar’s volatility and a significant political setback for the government in Congress. From currency instability to crypto tax reforms and agribusiness challenges, here’s a deep dive into the most-read stories of the week.
Why the Dollar at R$5.30 Is Unsustainable, According to Lifetime’s Chief Economist
The Brazilian real’s recent strength, with the dollar hovering around R$5.30, is unlikely to last, warns Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at Lifetime. She attributes this temporary dip to external factors but highlights looming risks from U.S. economic uncertainty and Brazil’s fiscal fragility. “This exchange rate isn’t sustainable,” Kawauti stated at the Lifetime Talks event. “The U.S. has major uncertainties, and our domestic fiscal issues could further weaken the real.” Analysts at BTCC echo concerns, noting that unresolved fiscal policies may trigger a dollar rebound.
Agribusiness’s “Golden Days” Are Over: Santander Director Warns of Unique Crisis
Carlos Aguiar, head of agribusiness at Santander, describes the current downturn as unlike any previous crisis. Post-pandemic boom investments have left the sector overleveraged, with many producers struggling to repay debts. Santander, which grew its agribusiness portfolio by 30% annually over the past decade, is now tightening credit. “The hangover after the golden days is hitting hard,” Aguiar told reporters. The bank’s R$50 billion agribusiness portfolio now represents 5–7% of its total credit.
New Crypto Tax Rules: Fixed 18% Rate and End of Exemptions by 2026
Brazil’s Congress approved MP 1.303, overhauling crypto taxation. Starting in 2026, capital gains on cryptocurrencies will face a flat 18% tax, up from the previous progressive rate (15–22.5%). The R$35,000 monthly exemption is also scrapped. Market reactions are mixed, with some traders flocking to platforms like BTCC to adjust portfolios ahead of the changes. “This shifts the calculus for long-term holders,” noted a BTCC analyst.
Dividend Picks: Bradespar, Petrobras, and 8 Others for October
Ativa Investimentos updated its dividend portfolio, swapping Taesa (TAEE11) and Cury (CURY3) for Irani (RANI3) and Direcional (DIRR3). The MOVE aims to boost yield potential amid market turbulence. Petrobras (PETR4) remains a staple, with its robust payout history.
Real Estate Fund Hit by Ambipar Default, Dividends Slashed
BM Brascan Lajes Corporativas (BMLC11) announced a R$0.06 per-share dividend cut after tenant Ambipar missed September’s rent payment. The fund’s managers are reassessing lease terms to mitigate future risks.
Q&A: Key Takeaways from This Week’s Financial News
Is the dollar’s drop to R$5.30 a buying opportunity?
Not yet, according to experts. Fiscal risks in Brazil and U.S. volatility could push the dollar higher soon.
How will the crypto tax changes affect traders?
The 18% flat rate simplifies compliance but removes perks for small-scale traders. Platforms like BTCC may see increased activity as users rebalance holdings.
Why is agribusiness struggling despite record exports?
Debt from pandemic-era expansion and falling commodity prices are squeezing margins. Santander’s pullback signals broader caution.
