4 Brazilian Stocks Trading at Black Friday Discounts – XP’s Top Picks for 2025

• Investor Questions Answered

Looking for undervalued gems in the Brazilian stock market? XP Investimentos has identified four stocks currently trading at "Black Friday" prices, offering potential bargains for savvy investors. This article dives into XP’s analysis, explores why these stocks are discounted, and provides actionable insights—backed by data from TradingView and BTCC’s market research team. Whether you're a long-term investor or hunting for short-term opportunities, these picks could be worth adding to your watchlist. --- ### Why Are These Brazilian Stocks on Sale? The Brazilian market has faced volatility due to global macroeconomic pressures and local fiscal uncertainties. However, XP’s analysts argue that this has created rare buying opportunities. "These stocks are trading below their intrinsic value," notes a BTCC market strategist. "It’s like Black Friday for equities—except the discounts might not last." Key factors driving the discounts: - Commodity price fluctuations impacting resource-heavy sectors. - Interest rate uncertainty weighing on growth stocks. - Overreactions to short-term earnings misses. --- ### XP’s Top 4 Discounted Stocks Here’s a breakdown of the stocks XP highlights, along with their year-to-date performance (source: TradingView): | Stock | Sector | YTD Return (%) | P/E Ratio | Dividend Yield (%) | |-------------|----------------|----------------|-----------|--------------------| | Vale SA | Materials | -12.3 | 5.2 | 8.7 | | Petrobras | Energy | -9.1 | 4.8 | 6.5 | | Itaú Unibanco | Financials | -5.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | | Magazine Luiza | Retail | -22.6 | N/A | 0.0 | Vale SA (VALE3) : The iron ore giant has been hit by weaker Chinese demand, but XP believes its dividend yield (8.7%) and cost-cutting measures make it a steal. Petrobras (PETR4) : Political noise overshadowed strong operational results. Analysts highlight its free cash Flow potential. Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) : A defensive play with solid loan growth and undervalued digital banking arm. Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) : High-risk, high-reward. The e-commerce player’s steep drop could reverse if consumer sentiment improves. --- ### Historical Context: How Often Do These Discounts Happen? Brazil’s market is no stranger to volatility. For instance: - In 2015–2016, similar discounts preceded a 60% rally in the Bovespa. - The 2020 pandemic selloff saw Petrobras drop 40% before rebounding 120% in a year. "Timing is tricky, but history suggests these levels are entry points for patient investors," says a BTCC analyst. --- ### Risks to Consider 1. Currency exposure : A weaker BRL could erode returns for dollar-based investors. 2. Political headlines : Upcoming municipal elections may spark short-term turbulence. 3. Commodity dependence : Vale and Petrobras are tied to global cycles. *Pro tip*: Hedge with USD/BRL futures if you’re concerned about forex swings. --- ### FAQs

Investor Questions Answered

Why is XP calling these "Black Friday" stocks?

XP’s report compares the current valuations to limited-time discounts, emphasizing temporary market pessimism rather than structural issues.

Is Magazine Luiza’s lack of dividends a red flag?

Not necessarily. The retailer is reinvesting profits into logistics and tech to compete with Amazon’s Brazil push.

How does BTCC’s analysis differ?

BTCC’s team focuses on liquidity and institutional ownership trends, noting hedge funds are accumulating Vale and Itaú.