Shiba Inu Price Prediction: On-Chain and Derivatives Data Reveal Weakening Sentiment Ahead of 2026

On-chain metrics and derivatives data flash warning signals for Shiba Inu—suggesting the meme coin's community-driven rally might be running out of steam.

The On-Chain Reality Check

Look beneath the surface hype, and the data tells a different story. Key on-chain indicators—like active address growth and network velocity—are softening. It's the classic sign of fading organic momentum, where the initial frenzy gives way to a more sober, transactional reality. The 'diamond hands' narrative starts to crack when the chain itself whispers about profit-taking and reduced engagement.

Derivatives: The Smart Money's Bet

Over in the derivatives markets, the picture gets even clearer. Funding rates are normalizing, and open interest is shifting—traders are hedging their bets, not doubling down. This isn't the leveraged euphoria that fuels parabolic moves; it's the cautious repositioning that often precedes a consolidation or correction. The so-called 'smart money' in futures and options isn't buying the hype; they're managing risk, a concept as foreign to some crypto maximalists as a balanced portfolio.

The Sentiment Shift

Combine these data points, and the sentiment shift becomes undeniable. The unwavering, meme-powered belief is being tested by hard metrics. It's the financial market's version of growing up—where boundless optimism meets the constraints of data, liquidity, and, dare we say it, fundamental value. After all, in crypto, sometimes the most bullish thing you can do is acknowledge a bearish signal before the crowd does—it saves capital for the next genuine opportunity, unlike chasing every dog-themed coin that howls.

So, where does this leave Shiba Inu? At a potential inflection point. The coming weeks will reveal if this is a healthy pause or the start of a deeper sentiment winter. One thing's for sure: in a sector obsessed with 'number go up,' the data now suggests it might be time to check the brakes. Because nothing deflates a bubble faster than the quiet sound of metrics turning south—except maybe a regulator raising an eyebrow, but that's a cynical thought for another day.

— Terra Army(@terra_army) December 24, 2025

On-Chain Metrics Reflect Falling Market Attention

Data from Santiment shows a sustained drop in Shiba Inu’s social dominance, a metric that tracks the share of SHIB-related discussion across crypto-focused media and platforms. Since mid-November, this measure has steadily declined, reaching approximately 0.032% on Wednesday, close to its lowest reading of the year. Analysts often interpret falling social dominance as a sign of reduced retail interest and weakening sentiment, particularly for community-driven assets such as memecoins.

Derivatives data reinforces this view. According to figures compiled by Coinglass, shiba inu futures open interest on the BitMEX exchange fell to around $50,140 on Wednesday, setting a new yearly low. Declining open interest typically indicates that traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones, reflecting reduced conviction or increased caution.

Positioning Data Shows Bearish Bias

Additional derivatives metrics point to a market skewed toward downside expectations. Coinglass data shows SHIB’s long-to-short ratio at 0.83, the highest level in over a month but still below the neutral threshold of one. A ratio below one indicates that short positions outweigh long positions, suggesting that a larger share of traders are betting on further price declines.

Image Courtesy: Coinglass

From a technical perspective, Shiba Inu was rejected earlier this month from the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, a move that preceded a decline of more than 14% over roughly two weeks. As of Wednesday, the token continued to trade near $0.0000070, keeping pressure on key support levels.

Technical Indicators Point to Ongoing Weakness

Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands NEAR 32, approaching oversold territory but still reflecting strong bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator posted a bearish crossover last week, a signal often associated with continued downward pressure.

If current conditions persist, analysts note that SHIB could retest its yearly low of approximately $0.0000067, last recorded on October 10. A sustained recovery WOULD likely require a shift in broader market sentiment, potentially allowing SHIB to challenge higher resistance levels such as the 50-day exponential moving average near $0.0000085.

For now, Shiba Inu’s price action underscores the sensitivity of memecoins to sentiment-driven indicators, highlighting the role of participation, attention, and derivatives positioning in shaping short-term market dynamics.

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