Nel ASA Stock in 2025: Order Backlog Shrinks – Can the Hydrogen Specialist Recover?
Nel ASA, a key player in the hydrogen sector, faces a critical juncture in 2025. While cost-cutting measures have improved profitability, a staggering 47% year-over-year drop in its order backlog raises red flags. With Q3 2025 revenue down 17% and a net loss of -85 million NOK, the company’s pivot to PEM technology and ability to convert engineering studies into firm contracts will determine its fate. Here’s a DEEP dive into the numbers, challenges, and what investors should watch. --- ### Why Is Nel ASA’s Order Backlog Collapsing?
The most alarming trend for Nel ASA is the rapid erosion of its order book. By Q3 2025, backlog stood at just 984 million NOK—a 47% plunge from 2024 and a further 21% drop quarter-over-quarter. New orders totaled a meager 57 million NOK (-64% YoY), signaling weak demand for large-scale projects. For a company betting on hydrogen’s future, this threatens revenue visibility and investor confidence. Analysts at Citi note that without securing major contracts soon, Nel’s recovery narrative could unravel.
--- ### Financials: Cost Cuts Help, But Revenue Decline Looms LargeNel’s Q3 2025 results paint a mixed picture: - Revenue: 303 million NOK (-17% YoY) - EBITDA: Improved to -37 million NOK (vs. -90 million NOK in 2024) - Net Loss: Reduced to -85 million NOK The numbers show successful belt-tightening, but as one BTCC analyst quipped, “You can’t shrink your way to growth.” The real test? Reigniting top-line momentum.
--- ### PEM vs. Alkaline: A Tale of Two StrategiesNel is doubling down on Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) tech, where margins are stronger and demand for modular solutions holds steady. Meanwhile, its Alkaline segment struggles as industrial clients delay final investment decisions (FIDs). Case in point: A 540 MW pipeline of FEED studies must convert to firm orders—soon—to offset Alkaline’s woes. If not, PEM alone won’t MOVE the needle.
--- ### What’s Next for Nel ASA Investors?With shares trading below Citi’s 2.70 NOK target, the market’s skepticism is clear. Key catalysts to watch: 1. Contract Conversions: Can Nel lock in its 540 MW FEED pipeline by early 2026? 2. Policy Tailwinds: Will EU or U.S. hydrogen subsidies accelerate demand? 3. Cash Runway: Current cost savings buy time, but not indefinite patience. *Personal take:* I’ve seen hydrogen HYPE cycles before—Nel needs tangible wins, not just promises. Until then, caution rules.
--- ### FAQ: Nel ASA’s 2025 ChallengesInvestor Insights
Is Nel ASA’s stock a buy after the 2025 downturn?
Not yet. While cost cuts are positive, the order backlog crisis must stabilize first. Monitor Q4 2025 updates for progress on PEM contracts.
How does Nel’s PEM tech compare to competitors?
PEM offers flexibility for smaller-scale projects, but rivals like Plug Power are scaling faster. Nel’s edge? Decades of electrolyzer experience—if they can monetize it.
What’s the biggest risk for Nel in 2026?
Alkaline segment collapse. If FEED studies don’t convert, revenue could fall further, forcing dilution or debt.
