Prio (PRIO3) Delivers Expected Q3 2025 Results, But Catalysts Are Coming – Here’s Why Analysts Remain Bullish

• Prio’s Q3 2025: The Numbers Behind the Headlines
• Why Analysts Are Still Buying the Dip
• The Twin Catalysts That Could Change Everything
• The Elephant in the Room: October’s Offtake Plunge
• Bottom Line: Patience Pays
• Prio (PRIO3) Q3 2025: Your Questions Answered

Brazilian oil producer Prio (PRIO3) just reported Q3 2025 earnings that matched market expectations, but analysts aren’t fazed. Why? Because two major catalysts – the Wahoo field coming online and full control of Peregrino – could transform the company’s cost structure and cash Flow by 2026. With Bradesco BBI raising its price target to R$62 and Genial Investimentos highlighting these near-term drivers, we break down why PRIO3 remains a top sector pick despite “in-line” results.

Prio’s Q3 2025: The Numbers Behind the Headlines

Let’s cut through the noise. Prio’s Q3 2025 EBITDA of $335 million slightly missed Bradesco’s estimate but matched consensus. Revenue jumped 22% to $607.2 million thanks to inventory buildup, but lifting costs ROSE to $17/barrel (vs. $16 projected) due to Peregrino field downtime. Net profit took a 44% year-over-year hit to $91.7 million – not pretty, but analysts saw this coming. October production data showed promise though: 90,000 boe/day, up 26% monthly despite operational hiccups at Albacora Leste and Frade fields.

Why Analysts Are Still Buying the Dip

Here’s where it gets interesting. Bradesco BBI just upped Prio’s price target to R$62 (from R$56), factoring in tax benefits from increased Peregrino depreciation. Their bull case rests on three pillars: 1) sector-low maintenance costs ($/barrel), 2) contracted growth through 2026, and 3) potential for $2B+ annual cash FLOW starting 2027 – enough for shareholder payouts AND acquisitions. As one BTCC market strategist put it: “Prio’s playing the long game when others are stuck in quarterly earnings drama.”

The Twin Catalysts That Could Change Everything

Genial Investimentos flags two game-changers coming down the pipeline:

With installation licenses secured, this project could slash operating costs to just $1/barrel once online. That’s not a typo – we’re talking about structural margin transformation.

Prio’s acquisition of the remaining 60% stake should unlock $250 million/year in efficiency gains through operational synergies and contract renegotiations.

“These aren’t theoretical improvements,” notes a Genial analyst. “Wahoo’s timeline is concrete, and Peregrino’s math works even at conservative oil prices.”

The Elephant in the Room: October’s Offtake Plunge

Yes, October sales dropped 59% monthly to 1.1 million barrels (Frade: -63%, Polvo/Tubarão: -74%). But context matters – this reflects temporary operational constraints rather than demand issues. The Itaú BBA team suggests this is already priced in, maintaining that Prio’s 2026-27 cash flow story remains intact.

Bottom Line: Patience Pays

Prio’s current valuation seems to bake in only the “known knowns” – today’s production and costs. What the market might be underestimating? The cascading effect of Wahoo and Peregrino on 2026-27 financials. As one trader quipped: “Buying PRIO3 now is like getting front-row tickets to a show where everyone’s still lining up at concessions.”

This article does not constitute investment advice. Data sources: Company filings, Bradesco BBI reports, Genial Investimentos analysis, TradingView.

Prio (PRIO3) Q3 2025: Your Questions Answered

Why did analysts maintain buy ratings despite mediocre earnings?

Because the real value drivers (Wahoo and Peregrino integration) are 6-18 months out. Today’s numbers are just the prelude.

How reliable is the $1/barrel cost projection for Wahoo?

Based on current engineering specs and comparable fields, though oil markets can always throw curveballs.

What’s the biggest risk to Prio’s 2026-27 projections?

Execution delays at Wahoo or unexpected complications in Peregrino’s operational transition.