WEG (WEGE3) in 2025: Time to Buy or Sell? 4 Analysts Weigh In After ’Lukewarm’ Earnings and Geopolitical Uncertainty
- WEG’s Q3 2025 Earnings: The Highlights
- Analyst Reactions: A Split Verdict
- Why the Divide?
- The Geopolitical Wildcard
- Year-to-Date Underperformance
- FAQ: Your WEGE3 Questions Answered
WEG's (WEGE3) Q3 2025 earnings report delivered mixed signals, with analysts split on whether the stock is a buy or hold. While margins held steady, revenue growth disappointed amid geopolitical headwinds and a weaker dollar. Here’s a DEEP dive into the numbers, analyst takes, and what it means for investors.
WEG’s Q3 2025 Earnings: The Highlights
WEG’s shares initially dipped but rebounded after the company reported Q3 2025 results that met expectations but fell short of its historical performance. Net income ROSE 4.5% year-over-year to R$1.65 billion, while EBITDA grew 2.3% to R$2.27 billion. Revenue climbed 4.2% to R$10.2 billion, with domestic sales at R$4 billion and international at R$6.2 billion. The EBITDA margin contracted slightly to 22.2%, down 0.4 percentage points.
Analyst Reactions: A Split Verdict
Four major firms updated their ratings post-earnings:
| Bank/Brokerage | Recommendation | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| BTG Pactual | Buy | R$54 |
| Safra | Neutral | R$43.60 |
| Santander | Outperform | R$56 |
| Ativa | Neutral | R$44 |
Why the Divide?
called the revenue growth "weak" (4% vs. their 7% estimate) but praised stronger-than-expected margins. They noted WEG needs faster growth to reverse its 20% year-to-date stock decline.maintained a Neutral rating, citing global macroeconomic risks and slowing short-term growth drivers.echoed concerns about long-term project delays in industrial equipment and power generation segments.highlighted geopolitical uncertainties delaying client investments but sees potential for a short squeeze given record-high short interest.
The Geopolitical Wildcard
WEG acknowledged headwinds from trade volatility and U.S.-Brazil tariff tensions, which have pressured its renewable energy revenue. The firm emphasized its diversified product lineup and global footprint as buffers. "We’re seeing healthy demand in traditional businesses alongside electrical infrastructure opportunities," the company stated.
Year-to-Date Underperformance
WEGE3 shares are down 20% in 2025, underperforming the Ibovespa. Factors include BRL appreciation against the USD, Q2 earnings disappointment, and trade war spillovers. The stock traded at R$40.18 at midday on October 22, up 1.29%.
FAQ: Your WEGE3 Questions Answered
Is WEG a good long-term investment?
Analysts are cautious due to macroeconomic risks, but WEG’s margins remain robust. Diversification could pay off if global instability eases.
Why did revenue growth slow?
Geopolitical delays in client projects, weaker renewable energy contributions, and USD depreciation all played a role.
What’s the short interest situation?
Santander notes short interest is at 1-year highs, which could trigger a squeeze if positive catalysts emerge.
