Smart Fit (SMFT3): Safra Predicts 60% Upside Potential in 2026 as Expansion Accelerates
- Why Is Smart Fit (SMFT3) a Top Growth Pick for 2026?
- Breaking Down Smart Fit’s Expansion Blueprint
- How Does Smart Fit’s Financial Outlook Stack Up?
- What’s Driving the Smart Fit Frenzy?
- Smart Fit vs. Competitors: Who’s Winning the Gym Wars?
- Risks to Watch in 2026
- FAQs: Your Smart Fit (SMFT3) Cheat Sheet
Smart Fit (SMFT3) is poised for explosive growth in 2026, with Safra analysts projecting a 60% upside for its shares. The fitness giant’s aggressive expansion in Brazil and Mexico—backed by untapped market potential—could add over 1,800 new gyms. With a 48% market share in Brazil and 62% in Mexico, Smart Fit’s revenue is expected to grow at a 23% CAGR through 2027. Here’s why investors are bullish.
Why Is Smart Fit (SMFT3) a Top Growth Pick for 2026?
Safra’s outperform rating on Smart Fit (SMFT3) isn’t just hot air—it’s backed by hard data. The bank’s R$33.50 price target implies a 60.3% upside from January 2026 levels, and here’s the kicker: Brazil alone could support 1,780 new gyms. Smart Fit, with its 48% market dominance, could snap up 850 of those. Even in a pessimistic scenario, we’re looking at 783 new locations. Mexico? Another 620 gyms waiting to happen. That’s not growth; that’s a tidal wave.
Breaking Down Smart Fit’s Expansion Blueprint
2025 was a record year—341 new gyms, smashing 2024’s 305. But 2026? Buckle up. The North, Northeast, and South regions of Brazil are ripe for conquest, while the Southeast and Midwest could double their footprint. Mexico’s 62% market share? Just the beginning. As Vitor Pini’s team at Safra puts it, “This isn’t saturation; it’s a land grab.” And with 276 company-owned units added last year (81% of the total), profitability isn’t taking a back seat.
How Does Smart Fit’s Financial Outlook Stack Up?
Let’s talk numbers: 23% revenue CAGR and 31% profit growth through 2027. December 2025 saw a monthly record—150 gyms opened in 31 days. Q4? A blistering 217 launches. Brazil led with 47% of new locations, but Mexico’s 21% share hints at where the next growth spike might come. Franchises (19% of the portfolio) add capital-light scalability. Translation: higher margins, faster ROI.
What’s Driving the Smart Fit Frenzy?
Two words:. Safra’s analysis cross-referenced gym saturation with income and population data, revealing gaps even in “mature” markets. Take São Paulo—it’s got gyms, but not enough mid-tier options. Smart Fit’s R$99/month model? Goldilocks pricing. Meanwhile, Mexico’s underpenetrated second-tier cities are low-hanging fruit. As one BTCC analyst quipped, “This isn’t fitness; it’s financial engineering with dumbbells.”
Smart Fit vs. Competitors: Who’s Winning the Gym Wars?
While rivals chase premium niches, Smart Fit’s “value for money” play is swallowing market share whole. In Brazil, it operates 978 units—nearly double its nearest competitor. Mexico’s 478 locations? Already 62% of the market. The secret sauce? Standardized layouts keep capex low, while tech-driven membership tools reduce churn. As TradingView charts show, SMFT3’s stock correlation with GDP growth is tightening—a sign the street sees this as a macro bet.
Risks to Watch in 2026
No rose-tinted glasses here: wage inflation could squeeze margins, and overexpansion in smaller cities might dilute returns. But with 2,084 gyms across 16 countries (1,683 company-owned), Smart Fit’s economies of scale are a moat. As one fund manager put it, “They’re the McDonald’s of gyms—except people actually cancel their Netflix before quitting.”
FAQs: Your Smart Fit (SMFT3) Cheat Sheet
What’s Smart Fit’s price target for 2026?
Safra’s R$33.50 target suggests 60% upside from current levels, based on expansion potential in Brazil and Mexico.
How many new gyms will Smart Fit open in 2026?
While unconfirmed, 2025’s 341 launches set a precedent. Analysts expect 300-350 annually through 2027.
Is Smart Fit overvalued after its recent rally?
With a forward P/E of 18x (vs. industry’s 22x), the stock still trades at a discount to growth potential.
