AXIA6, ITUB4, and More: Companies Poised to Announce Hefty Dividends in 2025 to Beat New Tax Rules, Says Analyst

• Why Are Companies Rushing Dividend Announcements?
• Top Picks for Anticipated Dividend Surges
• How Significant Could These Payouts Be?
• Beyond AXIA6 and ITUB4: Who Else Might Join?
• Timing Your Investments
• FAQs: Your Dividend Tax Questions Answered

With Brazil’s proposed tax law looming, companies like AXIA6 and ITUB4 might rush to declare bumper dividends before 2026 to help investors dodge a 10% withholding tax. Analyst Ruy Hungria highlights how this could trigger a stock rally—some payouts may exceed 10% of current market caps. Here’s the full breakdown, including why energy and banking sectors are primed for this move.

Why Are Companies Rushing Dividend Announcements?

Brazil’s Bill 1.087/2025, awaiting President Lula’s signature, will impose a 10% tax on dividends exceeding R$50,000 monthly per beneficiary starting January 2026. Analysts speculate that firms with robust profit reserves—like Axia Energia (AXIA6) and Itaú (ITUB4)—may front-load payouts to shield shareholders. "We’re talking about potential distributions topping 10% of market value," notes Hungria, who leads Empiricus’s dividend-focused "Vacas Leiteiras" portfolio (up 38% YTD).

Top Picks for Anticipated Dividend Surges

The former Eletrobras has slashed operational costs and stands to gain from rising energy prices. It already announced R$4.3 billion in dividends this month, hinting at more before year-end.Brazil’s banking giant boasts a "bulletproof balance sheet," says Hungria, with consistent profits regardless of macroeconomic turbulence. Both stocks are Vacas Leiteiras recommendations, though their appeal extends beyond tax timing.

How Significant Could These Payouts Be?

Historical data shows AXIA6 and ITUB4 have delivered dividend yields above sector averages. If they accelerate distributions, shareholders could net windfalls while avoiding the new levy. For context, the Vacas Leiteiras portfolio has outperformed the Ibovespa by 14 percentage points in 2025 alone.

Beyond AXIA6 and ITUB4: Who Else Might Join?

Hungria suggests other cash-rich firms across utilities, mining, and consumer staples may follow suit. Investors should monitor earnings calls for hints—companies often telegraph such moves through "profit reserve" discussions.

Timing Your Investments

While early dividends are enticing, Hungria cautions against chasing short-term gains. "Focus on sustainable payers," he advises. Tools like TradingView’s dividend calendars can help track announcements.

FAQs: Your Dividend Tax Questions Answered

What’s the deadline for companies to avoid the new tax?

Dividends declared before January 1, 2026, won’t face the 10% withholding—hence the expected year-end rush.

Are accelerated dividends a guaranteed win for investors?

Not always. While tax savings help, stock prices may adjust downward post-payout. Long-term fundamentals matter more.

How can I verify a company’s dividend capacity?

Check free cash Flow and payout ratios on platforms like TradingView. Firms with reserves exceeding 5% of market cap are prime candidates.