Bitcoin Could Face 70% Drawdown in Next Bear Market: Crypto Analyst Warns

Bitcoin's next bear cycle might deliver a brutal 70% haircut—just another day in crypto volatility.

Market Realities

Analysts project significant downside potential when the current bull run exhausts itself. Historical patterns suggest deep corrections follow major rallies—nothing new for seasoned crypto veterans.

Timing the Trough

Predicting exact market turns remains notoriously difficult, even for experts. The 70% figure represents a worst-case scenario based on previous cycle behavior.

Institutional insulation might soften the blow this time around—or maybe Wall Street will just panic sell like everyone else. Because when traditional finance meets crypto, suddenly everyone becomes a speculative day trader.

It would be a steep decline from $250K Bitcoin

With some Bitcoin advocates, such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, projecting prices as high as $250,000 by the end of this year, a 70% drop would bring it down to around $75,000.

Cowen said, “If we start screaming higher in Q4 for me, it’ll just be simple like, all right, this time’s not different, I’ll just take profits back to stables.” He added that he may wait until mid-2026 to re-enter.

Bitcoin is trading at $117,010 at the time of publication, up 3.41% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin is up 88.35% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

Cowen said market participants should expect another strong rally but not underestimate how quickly it could peak.

“Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally into the market cycle top,” he said, adding that should be the base case.

“But if that starts to happen, just remember the top could occur at any moment, right? …No one’s going to be like this is the top,” he said.

“Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a MOVE up,” he added.

ETH will outperform Bitcoin toward the end of the cycle

Meanwhile, Cowen also expects Ether to “struggle against” Bitcoin for a few more weeks, but said it will ultimately outperform heading into the end of the cycle. 

“Until the end of the cycle, ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” Cowen said.

“I expect weakness through the month of October for ETH,” he added. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ether’s relative strength to Bitcoin, is up 8.56% over the past 30 days, according to TradingView.

Some Bitcoiners say Bitcoin’s price will still follow its typical four-year cycle, while others are unsure.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said, “I bet 2026 is an up year.” “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently said, “I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”

Meanwhile, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor said in June, “Winter is not coming back.”