Bitcoin’s Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet – $164K Target Still in Play
Bitcoin defies gravity—again. Despite the usual doom-and-gloom predictions from Wall Street suits who still think 'blockchain' is a new type of Peloton accessory, BTC’s uptrend refuses to die. Here’s why the king of crypto isn’t done yet.
The $164K Moon Shot
No, that’s not a typo. The same analysts who called Bitcoin’s last 3x surge are doubling down—this isn’t hopium, it’s math. On-chain metrics scream accumulation, and the halving’s supply crunch hasn’t even fully kicked in. Meanwhile, TradFi institutions are quietly FOMO-ing into spot ETFs like it’s 2021 all over again.
Corrections ≠ Collapse
Yes, Bitcoin dipped 15% last week. No, the sky isn’t falling. Volatility is crypto’s middle name—pullbacks just shake out weak hands before the next leg up. Remember: the same people panic-selling now will be buying back at ATHs (again).
Wake up, folks. While bankers argue about ‘store of value,’ Bitcoin’s chart is drawing a parabola that could make Elon’s Twitter purchase look like a sensible investment. $164K or bust.
Figure 1. Bitcoin’s monthly price chart with our preferred EW count, four-phases cycle, and trading system signals
Besides the Elliott wave count, cycles, and trading system signals, we also notice that bitcoin has remained in an uptrend since it bottomed out late in 2022. See Figure 2 below. We included the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator because every time it broke above its downtrend line, a new uptrend started (green arrows). It recently did so again (pink arrow).
Figure 2. Bitcoin’s uptrend since late 2022
We also added the time bitcoin has spent going sideways (black squares) and rallying (green squares). It follows that BTC has spent about 28 months in consolidation patterns and rallied for only ~6 months. Why is that important? Because it means 1) you snooze, you lose, and 2) don’t get shaken out during times of low volatility.
Lastly, the red down-pointing arrows indicate that each consolidation results in false breakouts. We just experienced one on August 14. Only the February-March consolidation of this year was resolved lower, but Bitcoin stayed within its uptrend channel and has rallied multiple times to new ATHs since then. Therefore, follow the trend, the four-year cycle, the Elliott Wave, and our long-term trading system signal. None of these has yet signaled that the top is in.
Additionally, assuming “THE” peak on December 1, the blue trend channel is then around $149.3K, which is still 28% above current levels and brings us close to the ideal $164K target.
So, although we haven't gotten every twist and turn right since then—which is impossible anyway—we’ve consistently emphasized a bullish outlook for nearly two years, keeping our premium newsletter members on the right side of the trade, resulting in over 400% gains. At this point, we remain bullish.
