Dogecoin Breaks Out: DOGE Smashes Through $0.21 Resistance with 5% Surge—But Are Traders Sleeping on Derivatives?
Dogecoin's latest rally just bulldozed a critical resistance level—but the party might be quieter than expected.
DOGE's 5% surge today sent it punching past $0.21, a level that's been a stubborn ceiling for weeks. Yet derivatives markets are yawning, with open interest and volume lagging behind the spot price action. Meme magic or just another fakeout?
Here's the kicker: retail traders are piling in, but the smart money's still sipping margaritas on the sidelines. Classic crypto—where fundamentals take a backseat to Elon Musk's latest tweet.
DOGE derivatives and on-chain data remain at weak levels despite recent rise
Dogecoin is showing recovery signs on Monday, rising about 5% as it looks to break out of its bearish trend over the past two weeks. The memecoin declined 35% from the last two weeks of July, spanning into August 3.
The weakness in Doge is also reflected in its futures open interest, which has been declining steadily alongside its price.
Open interest (OI) refers to the total number of outstanding contracts in a derivatives market. During its price decline, Dogecoin's OI dropped from 19.69 billion DOGE to 15.36 billion DOGE. At the same time, its funding rates have remained largely at low levels after plunging from overheated conditions in mid-July.
DOGE Open Interest. Source: Coinglass
Meanwhile, DOGE whales, entities holding 10-100 million tokens, added firepower to the downtrend with their selling spree of over 740 million DOGE tokens since July 17, per Santiment data.
DOGE tests $0.21 as Stoch recovers from oversold conditions
On the technical side, DOGE bounced off a descending trendline extending from December 2024 and is testing the $0.21 resistance, which is strengthened by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A MOVE above this level and a subsequent flip of the $0.26 hurdle could see the top memecoin rise to tackle its six-month resistance at $0.28.
DOGE/USDT daily chart
Dogecoin's Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is also showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing its neutral level line. A firm move above the neutral level in both momentum indicators could spark a strong recovery for the memecoin.
On the downside, DOGE could decline toward $0.14 if it fails to hold the $0.18 level.
