Bitcoin July Futures Deadlock at Pivot Point—Bulls Gunning for $120,615 Breakout

Bitcoin's July futures contract is stuck in a tug-of-war at the central pivot—while bulls load up for a potential moonshot to $120,615.

The Standoff

Price action’s gone full spaghetti Western this week. Neither side’s blinking as BTC futures coil around the pivot like a spring. Textbook breakout setup—if the bulls can muster the firepower.

The Bull Case

Clearing $120,615 flips the script. Suddenly every institutional report from here to Wall Street starts screaming ‘macro hedge’ again. (Funny how price targets shift with the wind.)

The Fine Print

Watch for fakeouts. These levels attract more spoofing than a hedge fund’s ESG report. If liquidity’s thin, we could see a violent rejection before the real move.

Either way—someone’s about to get squeezed. Place your bets before the CME open.

Key takeaways

• Range bound: July futures have been oscillating for the past week between the 123,875 high‑range pivot and the 115,340 lower‑range pivot.
• Central point rejection: Price action stalled at 120,615, the midpoint of the range, signalling hesitation among both bulls and bears.
• Next guides: Three critical levels will determine the bias:
  • Bullish trigger: A clear break and hold above 126,015 (upper channel trendline) could propel a retest of 123,875 and pave the way to 129,000–132,000 zones.
  • Bearish guard: Failure to reclaim 120,615 risks a slide back toward 115,340, with the next support level near 112,000.
  • Consolidation phase: Continued congestion around 120,000–121,000 will likely result in diminished volatility and tight trading ranges into month-end.

Bitcoin Futures price chart courtesy of TradingView. Analysis by MacroStructure DOT connect

Analysis

1. Price structure intact

Since early May, Bitcoin's July contract has been respecting an ascending channel (dashed trendlines), confirming higher lows off thepivot. The overall bullish framework remains intact, providedholds.

2. Volume profile confluence

Volume‑at‑price shows a value area concentrated betweenand, underscoring the importance of this zone. The rejection at—where daily volume spiked—indicates strong supply on rallies above that level.

3. Bullish scenario

• Upside breakout: A decisive close above 120,615 (upper trendline and recent swing high) would invalidate the central‑pivot ceiling and open the door to 129,000 and the 132,000 cluster.
• Catalysts: Positive on‑chain flows, macro risk‑on triggers (e.g., BTC ETF inflows), or a broader crypto rally could fuel this move.

4. Bearish scenario

• Downside risk: If BTC fails to recapture 120,615, expect renewed selling pressure toward 115,340. A breach would target the rising trendline support around 112,000 and the low-vol POC at 108,000.
• Headwinds: Profit‑taking, regulatory concerns, or weakness in equity markets may intensify selling pressure.

5. What’s next?

Traders should watch for a sustained break and retest ofor a breakdown below. Position sizing and stop‑loss management around these pivots will be crucial as volatility tightens into the month's close.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a professional before making trading decisions.