JPMorgan Doubts Stablecoin Market Cap Will Reach $2 Trillion by 2028—Here’s Why
Wall Street's crystal ball looks foggy on crypto—again.
Stablecoins face a $2 trillion ceiling, says JPMorgan. The banking giant just poured cold water on bullish projections, arguing regulatory headwinds and adoption hurdles will keep the market in check.
The math doesn’t add up
Even with explosive DeFi growth and institutional interest, hitting that magic number would require a 10x surge from current levels. TradFi analysts aren’t buying it—literally or figuratively.
The fine print
Their skepticism hinges on three factors: crackdowns from skittish regulators, competition from CBDCs, and the eternal struggle to move beyond speculative trading. Because nothing says ‘stable’ like watching Tether’s lawyers work overtime.
One thing’s certain: if stablecoins defy the doubters, JPMorgan will be first in line to underwrite the IPO.
Stablecoin market cap won't reach $2 trillion by 2028
JPMorgan Chase revealed its outlook for the stablecoin market, highlighting a $500 billion valuation by 2028.
The bank challenged forecasts of a $1-$2 trillion stablecoin market cap by 2028, calling such predictions far-fetched compared with the sector's current $250 billion value.
"We find forecasts for an exponential expansion of the stablecoin universe from $250 billion currently to $1 trillion-$2 trillion over the coming years as far too optimistic," analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note to investors on Thursday.
The report highlights that stablecoin adoption for global payments remains at 6% compared to an 88% demand in crypto-native environments. It added that the digital asset class is recognized more for crypto-related services rather than everyday transactions.
As a result, the analysts debunked the notion that stablecoins WOULD replace traditional currencies, citing a lack of yield and difficulties moving between fiat and crypto.
"The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality," the strategists added.
JPMorgan further rejected comparisons between stablecoins and China's e-CNY rollout, as well as the rise of platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay.
"Neither the rapid expansion of e-CNY nor the success of Alipay and WeChat Pay represent templates for stablecoin expansion in the future," JPMorgan wrote.
The prediction comes below estimates made by other experts, including analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein, as well as Ripple executives, who projected a stablecoin market cap growth of $1-$2 trillion over the next few years.
The expectation also comes amid progress in stablecoin legislation in the US, particularly with the Guidance and Establishing Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) bill. The bill passed the Senate in June and is set to face the House this month, alongside other crypto regulatory bills.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill and other congressional leaders have designated the week of July 14 as "Crypto Week," during which lawmakers are set to review the CLARITY bill, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the GENIUS bill.
