Bitcoin Futures Face Make-or-Break Moment: Bulls Need to Smash Through $106.2K POC and $107.2K Resistance

Central Pivot ("Line in the Sand") – 104,845 (Yellow Line):

After pulling back from the 112,740 resistance, Bitcoin bounced off its daily Value Area Low (VAL, highlighted in yellow) and the central pivot at 104,845. Holding above 104,845 remains crucial—this level divides bullish control from renewed bearish pressure.

Point of Control (POC, Light Blue Line at ~106,200):

The POC at 106,200 marks the highest-volume price node on the volume profile. Currently, BTC trades just below this POC. If bulls are to reestablish control, they must first push price back above 106,200. Failing to reclaim the POC keeps sellers in the driver’s seat and increases the odds of retesting 104,845 or lower.

Immediate resistance – 107,215

Just above the POC sits 107,215, the breakout trigger from the last rally. Today’s daily candle was rejected at 107,215. Only a sustained break above both 106,200 and 107,215 will confirm that demand is accelerating.

Volume Area High (VAH, Pink Line around ~109,870):

The VAH at approximately 108,680 represents the upper boundary of the 70% volume area. A clean break above 108,680 would confirm buyers are absorbing supply, clearing the way for targets at 109870, 111,055 and 112,740.

VWAP Middle Line (Red):

The VWAP (red middle line) currently sits between 105,500 – 106,000. As long as BTC remains above VWAP, the intraday bias favours buyers. A daily close below VWAP shifts momentum toward sellers.

Step 1 – Recapture the POC at 106,200:

• Trigger: A 4-hour (or daily) close above 106,200 on above-average volume. This signals institutions re-entering.

• Why it matters: The POC is the highest-volume node, and reclaiming it suggests that price acceptance is shifting upward. Failure here will likely keep BTC consolidating or push it back toward 104,845.

Step 2 – Break above 107,215:

• Trigger: Sustained closes above 107,215 (with supportive volume).

• Why it matters: 107,215 served as the breakout point on the last rally. Clearing this confirms a fresh bid. Once above, watch for short-covering and new long entries targeting the VAH.

Step 3 – Conquer the VAH at ~108,680 (Pink Line):

• Trigger: A daily close above 108,680 on expanding volume.

• Why it matters: The VAH marks the upper boundary of the value area. A clean break here validates that bulls are absorbing leftover supply from the previous consolidation.

• Targets beyond VAH:

  • 109,870 (next volume‐profile node)

  • 111,055 - 112740 (prior swing high and major supply zone)

Bullish confirmation:

• VWAP Support: Price must remain above the VWAP red line. A reversion below VWAP weakens the bullish edge.

• Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Daily/4-hour lows must hold above 104,845, and highs must clear 107,215 and eventually 108,680.

• Volume Expansion: A noticeable pickup in traded volume around 106,200 confirms institutional participation.

• Trigger: A 4-hour (or daily) close below 104,845 on rising volume.
• Why it matters: Losing the "line in the sand" shifts the short-term control to sellers.
• Next support – 102,695: Although the chart’s POC has shifted to 106,200, the volume profile’s secondary node lies near 102,695. A failure below 104,845 likely drags price toward 102,695.

• 102,695 (Secondary volume profile node): Holding this level is key to preventing a deeper drop in value.
• 101,010 – 99,825: This range was prior congestion/support in March. Breaching it invites acceleration to 98,635, the volume node from late April.
• 98,635 & Lower: Once under 98,635, watch 94,800

• VWAP rejection: If BTC cannot reclaim VWAP and it flips to resistance, sellers dominate.
• Lower highs & lower lows: A series of daily candles failing at 104,845 and new lows under 102,695 confirm a downtrend.
• Rising down-volume: Noticeably larger volume on declines through each support level confirms institutional selling pressure.

Bullish Entry (POC & 107,215 Break):

• Entry trigger: 4-hour (or daily) candle closing above 106,200 with volume above the 20-period moving average, followed by a subsequent close above 107,215.

• Stop loss: Place stop just below VWAP (around 105,000). A reversion below VWAP signals the bullish thesis is invalid.

• Profit targets:

• 107,215 – 108,680 (first barrier; scale-out partial).

• 109,870 (second target; scale-down).

• 111,055 – 112,740 (final target range).

Bearish entry (break below 104,845):

• Entry trigger: 4-hour (or daily) candle closing below 104,845 on increasing volume.

• Stop loss: Just above VWAP (around 106,500).

• Profit tTargets:

• 102,695 (secondary volume‐profile node; scale-out).

• 101,010 – 99,825 (next support range).

• 98,635 – 97,170 (final target area).