Monero (XMR) Stumbles as On-Chain Data Screams ’Overbought’—Traders Brace for More Pain
Monero’s privacy-focused charm isn’t shielding XMR from gravity this week. On-chain metrics flash classic exhaustion signals—just as sellers return to the party.
Blood in the privacy coin streets? Not yet. But the charts whisper ’caution’ after Monero’s recent sprint left it gasping for air. Those ’buy the dip’ types? They’re checking their wallets twice.
Funny how ’decentralized’ coins still dance to the same old tune: greed, fear, and the occasional whale dumping bags on retail. Some things never change—even in crypto’s anarchist paradise.
Monero’s on-chain metrics show a bearish bias
CryptoQuant data, as shown in The Graph below, highlights selling pressure on Monero. The Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) for XMR has been red and has increased since early May. This indicator measures the cumulative difference between market buy and sell volumes over three months. When 90-day CVD is positive (green) and increasing, it suggests the Taker Buy Dominant Phase, while a negative (red) and decreasing value indicates the Taker Sell Dominant Phase.
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XMR Spot Taker CVD chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Another bearish outlook is CryptoQuant’s Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge data, which shows the overheating conditions. This metric measures the activity level of retail investors in XMR based on their trading frequency. High retail activity indicates that retail traders are flooding into the market, often chasing price movements, which can signal local tops.
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XMR Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge Source: CryptoQuant
XMR summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Monero Price Forecast: XMR bears take control
Monero price has rallied by more than 55% since early May. A correction generally follows after such a massive rally. At the start of this week on Monday, XMR faced a pullback of more than 11% until the next day. At the time of writing on Wednesday, it continues to trade down by 8% at around $338.73
If XMR continues its correction, it could extend the decline to retest its 50% price retracement at $303.61, drawn from the April low of $185.93 to the May high of $420.08.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 49, sharply rejecting its overbought level of 70, and slips below its neutral value of 50, indicating strong bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, further supporting the bearish conditions.
XMR/USDT daily chart
However, if XMR recovers, it could extend the recovery to retest its recent high of $420.
