US CPI Inflation Data Drops Today – Will Traders Get the Rocket Fuel They’re Begging For?
All eyes on the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30 AM ET. Another hot print could send the S&P 500 into orbit—or expose this rally as another sugar high.
Wall Street’s algo-trading overlords already priced in perfection. Now we see if Main Street gets the memo.
Bonus cynicism: If stocks dive, just wait for the Fed to whisper ’pivot’ again. The house always wins.
Today’s Market Outlook: May 12–16, 2025
Expectations around U.S. inflation also factored into market sentiment. Forecasts for the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month are now at 0.3%, compared to the previous 0.1%. The broader CPI m/m is also expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.1%, while annual CPI remains steady at 2.4%.
Last month’s softer CPI readings were driven by declines in volatile sectors like energy, travel, and hospitality—all sensitive to economic uncertainty and policy shifts. Wells Fargo economists noted that seasonal factors and early signs of tariff-related pressure, especially on vehicle prices, could begin pushing CORE goods inflation higher. However, April’s CPI may not yet reflect the full impact of the most recent tariff adjustments.
Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with Gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD falling below 1.12, and stock markets continuing upward. The moves weren’t too big, but we opened 37 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold breaks Below the 20 SMA
Gold, often a barometer of market caution, saw a sharp correction. After reaching an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April, spot prices have dropped by about $140 over two days, settling NEAR $3,300—down nearly 1.9%. This pullback is seen as a shift toward riskier assets amid renewed optimism, especially after news of a new U.S.-UK trade agreement further boosted market morale.
USD/JPY Rebounds Continues Amid Dollar Strength
The USD/JPY pair remains resilient, pushing above the key 140.00 level and recently reaching 146.00. The yen continues to be sensitive to U.S. dollar strength and global risk dynamics, despite signs of a short-term recovery.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Consolidates Above $100,000
Bitcoin saw a robust resurgence, climbing more than 6% to trade above $103,850—its first move above the $100,000 mark since February. The recent gains have been attributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding the U.S.-UK trade deal and renewed Optimism for future progress in U.S.-China relations. Bitcoin’s strength stands out, particularly in contrast to corrections in traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Tests MAs after Rebound Following Pectra Upgrade
ETHEREUM also staged a notable comeback after a prolonged downward trend from a January high of $3,634 to an April low of $1,475. The successful rollout of the Pectra update, which introduced enhancements to staking and wallet features, has fueled a rally of nearly 20%. The ETH price now sits above $2,200, reversing months of bearish momentum and bolstering the broader crypto recovery.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
