S&P 500 Teases Breakout—Will Bulls Finally Seal the Deal This Week?

Markets hold their breath as the S&P 500 flirts with a decisive breakout. After a week of shaky gains, today’s close could make or break the rally—typical finance drama where ’this time it’s different’ until it isn’t.

Tech leads, crypto lurks, and Wall Street analysts pretend they saw it coming all along. Will the index crack resistance or buckle under its own hype? Place your bets—the house always wins.

Today’s Market Outlook, Key Earnings to Watch

Today we have a plethora of central bankers speaking, starting with the UK Bank of England Andrew Bailey first in the European session, followed by FOMC Member Barkin, FOMC Member Williams, FOMC Member Goolsbee, FOMC Member Waller, FOMC Member Cook and FOMC Member Musalem who can induce some volatility in forex.

S&P 500 Chart Daily – Can Buyers Push Above the 200 SMA Today?

In Canada, the labor market has shown signs of strain since US tariffs were imposed in March, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% and employment falling. The labor force participation rate has also decreased for two consecutive months. Although the job market hasn’t collapsed entirely, unemployment is still below the 6.9% peak from last year. However, ongoing declines in job openings suggest further challenges ahead. RBC analysts predict the unemployment rate will continue to rise through the second half of 2025.

Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with Gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD falling to 1.13, and stock markets continuing upward. The moves weren’t too big, but we opened 37 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Pullback Stalls at the 20 Dily SMA

Gold experienced a sharp correction after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. In the past two days alone, spot gold (XAU/USD) has dropped nearly $140, bringing the price to around $3,300 per ounce, a 1.9% decline. This pullback coincided with a renewed sense of Optimism in the markets, fueled by the announcement of the new US-UK trade deal. While this dip follows a sharp rally, some analysts suggest that the pullback is more driven by trade optimism than any fundamental change. The 20-day simple moving average (SMA) has served as strong support during gold’s rise. If the price stabilizes, potentially forming bullish reversal patterns, it could present an opportunity to enter long positions again.

USD/JPY Buyers Return

The USD/JPY pair recovered from the critical 140.00 level, supported by its 100-month moving average. However, a 2.5-cent surge yesterday pushed the pair to 146. Despite this recovery, the Japanese yen remains vulnerable to global risk sentiment and the momentum of the US dollar.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Reclaims the $100 Level

Bitcoin resumed the upside momentum and surged more than 6% yesterday, surpassing $103,850 and marking its first time above $100,000 since February. This movement highlights Bitcoin’s continued strength, as it held firm while other assets struggled.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum’s Recovery and Market Trends

Ethereum had been in a prolonged downtrend for much of the year, falling from a high of $3,634 in January to a low of $1,475 in early April. This decline mirrored a broader flight from risk assets amid new US trade tariffs and global uncertainties. However, after the Petra upgrade, ethereum experienced a significant rally, rising nearly 20% to surpass $2,000. This upward movement continued, pushing Ethereum beyond $2,200, reversing months of downward pressure.

ETH/USD – Weekly Chart