JSE Dips 0.12% as Banks Drag—While Top 40 & Gold Stocks Defy Gravity

Another day, another dip for the JSE—because why should South African markets break tradition? Banks led the decline (-0.12%), but the Top 40 and gold stocks staged a quiet rebellion.

Gold’s rally continues as investors flock to the shiny stuff—probably while muttering ‘fiat is trash’ under their breath. Meanwhile, the Top 40’s resilience suggests someone’s still buying the ‘SA recovery’ narrative (bless their hearts).

Key takeaway? Even in a sluggish market, there’s always a bull case—you just have to squint harder.

Financials Extend Losses

SA’s financials took the biggest hit, with major banks tumbling as global liquidity and trade-linked outflows worried investors.

Standard Bank led the decline, down 8.48% to R205.93, while Old Mutual and Nedbank also fell sharply. Over the past month, the financials have lost 8.05% – a clear indication of their sensitivity to international volatility.

Institutions with cross-border exposure are vulnerable as investors move away from risk assets and emerging market financials.

Gold Stocks Shine as Investors Flee to Safe-Haven

In contrast, gold mining stocks were a bright spot. Gold ROSE above 3,250 per ounce and investors rotated into safe-haven assets.

AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold and Gold Fields outperformed as investors sought hedges against financial uncertainty and inflation.

This is gold’s traditional role as a store of value during times of geopolitical and economic instability.

Technical Analysis: JSE Top 40 Bullish

While the All Share Index struggled, the JSE Top 40 Index has broken out of the long-standing range of R84,000-R84,300 and is now above the trendline and 50 EMA (R83,224). The MACD has also given a bullish crossover.

• Entry Point: Retest near R84,300

• Targets: R84,900 and R85,900

• Stop-Loss: Below R83,200

This is a buy-the-dip opportunity for trend followers if price holds above the breakout level. A sustained move could take the index to R85,897.

Conclusion: Sector Paths Diverge on JSE

The JSE is caught between two opposing forces. Financials are being hit by global headwinds and recession fears while mining stocks and the Top 40 Index offer a bullish counterweight.

The recent Top 40 breakout suggests investors may return if the economic signals stabilise. But macro risks are still in control and volatility is high and investors are cautious.

Watch this space to see if the Top 40 breakout holds—or fails.