AUD/USD Holds at $0.6412 as Australian Inflation Surprises, Markets Eye US PCE Data
The Australian dollar held steady against the greenback after CPI data outperformed expectations, while traders await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Will crypto markets catch a bid if traditional finance gets volatility?
Forex markets yawned at the 0.6% quarterly CPI rise - just enough to keep the RBA hawkish but not enough to shake the ’higher for longer’ Fed narrative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade like a tech stock rather than the inflation hedge it was supposed to be.
Next catalyst: US core PCE data. A hot print could crush risk assets across the board... or finally give decentralized finance its moment to shine as traditional markets wobble.
Key Aussie Data Released:
CPI q/q: 0.9% (vs. 0.8% expected)
Trimmed Mean CPI q/q: 0.7% (vs. 0.6% expected)
CPI y/y: 2.4% (slightly above forecast, unchanged from prior)
Private Sector Credit: 0.5% (in line with expectations)
: The stronger inflation print suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might delay rate cuts, helping keep the Aussie dollar supported. Higher interest rates often attract foreign investment, boosting currency demand.
Spotlight on U.S. Data: Key Risk Events Ahead
Later today, attention shifts to the U.S. economic calendar, where a flood of data could swing the AUD/USD pair significantly.
What to Watch — and Why:
ADP Employment: A slowdown to 114K jobs (from 155K) would suggest softer U.S. labor demand—often bearish for the dollar.
Q1 Advance GDP: A drop to 0.2% from 2.4% would signal fading economic momentum.
Core PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A fall to 0.1% (from 0.4%) could increase rate cut expectations.
Pending Home Sales & Income Data: Weak results would reinforce the idea of a slowing consumer economy.
: If the data comes in soft, the dollar could weaken, lifting AUD/USD. Strong numbers, however, may cap or reverse today’s gains.
Technical View: Watching for Breakout or Rejection
Technically, AUD/USD is showing early signs of strength. After bouncing off an ascending trendline and reclaiming the 50-period EMA at 0.6399, the bulls are eyeing a breakout.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: TradingviewKey Levels:
Resistance: $0.6429 (breakout point), then $0.6449
Support: $0.6400 (trendline and EMA zone)
Beginner-Friendly Trade Plan:
Buy if price closes above $0.6429 → Target $0.6449
Sell if price rejects $0.6429 → Watch for a dip toward $0.6400
Stop-loss: Keep it 15–20 pips beyond entry to manage risk
: A confirmed breakout shows momentum is building—but don’t jump in too early. Waiting for confirmation can help avoid false signals, especially with high-impact U.S. data on the way.
