Super Micro’s Stock Plunge: Grim Revenue Forecast Sends SMCI Below $30
Wall Street’s AI darling gets a reality check—Super Micro’s revenue guidance just triggered a selloff brutal enough to make even crypto traders wince. The server-maker’s stock cratered past the $30 floor as analysts scrambled to downgrade targets.
Behind the plunge? A classic case of overpromising and underdelivering. Super Micro’s growth narrative—once the toast of Silicon Valley—now looks as shaky as an overleveraged DeFi protocol. Turns out, even hardware plays aren’t immune to the ’buy the rumor, sell the news’ mentality.
Bonus jab: At least crypto crashes come with memes and community support. Stockholders just get spreadsheets and silence.
SMCI Extends Steep Decline After Earnings Disappointment
After the markets closed modestly higher on the day, shares of Super Micro Computer nosedived by 18% in after-hours trading. This sharp selloff came on the heels of the company’s fiscal Q1 2025 earnings release and a drastically lowered revenue forecast for Q3 — a move that disappointed investors already cautious about the company’s prospects.
From a peak of $123 in March 2024, SMCI shares have now plunged over 75% in just over a year. At the close today, the stock sat at $36.45, but after-hours trading saw prices fall below the $30 mark, underlining the market’s growing skepticism.
SMCI Stock Chart Daily – The Downtrend Resumes
Weak Q3 Revenue Forecast Raises Red Flags
Super Micro’s preliminary Q3 revenue guidance came in far below expectations at just $1.4 billion, a stark revision that triggered the selloff. The company attributed the shortfall primarily to “delayed customer platform decisions,” which reportedly pushed significant sales from Q3 into Q4.
However, the explanation did little to calm nerves. Analysts and investors remain wary, particularly given that the company is also facing scrutiny over its accounting practices. While management attempted to frame the delays as a short-term issue, the scale of the miss raises broader concerns about operational execution and visibility.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Earnings Highlights – Q3 2025
- Company projected Q3 revenue between $4.5B and $4.6B
- Well below consensus estimates of $5.0B to $6.0B
- Reflects a significant deceleration compared to prior quarters
- Forecasted EPS of $0.29–$0.31
- Versus Wall Street expectations of $0.46–$0.62
- Suggests weaker profitability and possibly higher cost pressures
- Management cited delays in customer platform decisions pushing some sales into Q4
- Also impacted by higher inventory reserves for older product lines
- Ongoing investments to support new product launches added to near-term expenses
- GAAP and adjusted gross margins both down 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter
- Caused by product mix shifts and inventory-related write-downs
Margin Compression Adds to Worries
Compounding the revenue disappointment, Super Micro also reported deteriorating profitability. GAAP and adjusted gross margins both fell by 220 basis points from the prior quarter, largely due to increased inventory reserves on older-generation products and fast-tracked spending aimed at bringing new platforms to market. These pressures further reduced investor confidence in the company’s near-term outlook.
Conclusion: Caution Reigns as SMCI Struggles with Growth Narrative
While Super Micro Computer has previously ridden high on the AI infrastructure boom, this earnings season marked a turning point. With revenue forecasts slashed and margins under pressure, the stock’s massive selloff reflects deeper concerns about the company’s ability to maintain momentum amid growing competition and internal challenges.
Investors will now look to Q4 results and customer follow-through to determine if this is a temporary stumble or part of a longer-term deterioration in the SMCI growth story.
