XRP Weekly Outlook: Will a US ETF Launch Propel Ripple to $5?
Ripple’s XRP teeters on the edge of a potential breakout—if Wall Street’s ETF machine finally bites. Crypto traders eye the $5 threshold as whispers of institutional interest grow louder.
Behind the hype: A US XRP ETF would flood the market with ’paper’ demand while gray-haired finance execs scramble to understand blockchain. Classic.
Key factors this week: Regulatory tailwinds, trading volume spikes, and whether Bitcoin’s dominance fades enough for altcoins to shine. The charts suggest momentum—but in crypto, hope cuts deeper than technicals.
Ripple Recovery: End of the Correction Phase?
After a massive surge at the end of 2024, Ripple (XRP) has spent the early months of 2025 in a consolidation and correction phase. However, signs are emerging that the pullback might be over, with broader bullish momentum ready to resume.
Ripple’s historic rally began before Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as XRP skyrocketed from around $0.50 in November 2024 to an intraday high NEAR $3.39 by mid-January — a gain of over 300%. This breakout was primarily driven by renewed optimism after a critical win for Ripple in its ongoing legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Early 2025: Volatility and Market Risk-Off Sentiment
Following that peak, XRP mirrored the broader risk-off sentiment seen in global stock markets during Q1 2025. By early February, XRP/USD had slipped back below the important $2.00 level as crypto markets, along with Bitcoin (BTC), shed much of their recent gains.
Further pressure in early April saw XRP dip under $2.00 during a sharp wave of market panic. However, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart provided key support, stabilizing prices. As risk appetite returned, Ripple bounced back above $2.00, and yesterday buyers pushed it decisively above $2.20. This technical move now opens the pathway toward higher targets: $2.50, $3.00, and possibly a new all-time high around $3.50.
Still, buyers faced initial resistance at the 50-day SMA (yellow), which temporarily slowed momentum.
ETF Developments: Brazil Leads, Is the U.S. Next?
Adding fuel to the bullish fire is a major development: the launch of the world’s first XRP spot ETF. Hashdex and Genial Investimentos introduced the XRPH11 ETF on Brazil’s B3 exchange. Designed for experienced investors, the fund will allocate at least 95% of its assets directly into XRP, using the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index.
This marks Hashdex’s ninth cryptocurrency-focused ETF in Brazil, following similar products for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). With Genial Bank SA serving as custodian, XRPH11 aligns with Brazil’s increasingly crypto-friendly regulatory framework.
Meanwhile, in the United States, several firms including Bitwise and Grayscale have filed applications for XRP spot ETFs. According to the Polymarket prediction platform, there is currently a 74% probability that a U.S.-based XRP ETF will be approved sometime in 2025. Should this materialize, it would likely send another wave of buying into Ripple, possibly paving the way for XRP to rally toward the $5 mark.
Conclusion: A Bullish Setup is Forming
Ripple is at a critical technical and fundamental juncture. A resurgence in bullish sentiment, combined with ETF developments in Brazil and potential U.S. approval later this year, could provide the necessary catalysts for another major rally. Traders should closely watch the $2.20–$2.50 zone, as a break higher could ignite a fresh bullish leg targeting record highs — and possibly, the much-anticipated $5 milestone.
