Six Carnivals After the Pandemic: Which Stocks Soared — and Which Never Recovered
- The Backdrop: From Collapse to Infinite Liquidity
- Top 20 Performers: Who Turned Crisis Into Opportunity?
- The Bounceback Kings
- Bottom 20: When Recovery Never Came
- Key Lessons From Six Years
- FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Six years after the COVID-19 pandemic sent global markets into a tailspin, the Brazilian stock market tells a story of extreme winners and losers. From February 2020 to February 2026, some stocks multiplied investor capital by over 1,000%, while others nearly vanished. This deep dive into 158 stocks across the Ibovespa, IDIV, and Small Caps indices reveals the brutal dispersion of outcomes—and the lessons investors can learn.
The Backdrop: From Collapse to Infinite Liquidity
Between February 20 and March 23, 2020, markets experienced a textbook risk-off shock: halted capital flows, spiking risk premiums, and a dash for dollars. Then came the historic response—zero interest rates, central bank balance sheet expansions, and massive fiscal stimulus. While global indices recovered unevenly in dollar terms, the Brazilian market amplified these disparities, creating stark divides between winners and losers.
Top 20 Performers: Who Turned Crisis Into Opportunity?
Three sectors dominated the recovery:
- Banks (e.g., BTG Pactual +376%)
- Electric Utilities (Unipar +376%)
- Oil & Gas (Prio +413%, Petrobras +1,089%)
Notably, 13 of these top performers were dividend-paying IDIV constituents, proving cash-generating businesses provided both resilience and returns.
The Bounceback Kings
Four stocks gained over 1,000% from March 2020 lows:
| Stock | Gain | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| PRIO3 | +1,971% | Oil |
| EMBR3 | +1,097% | Aerospace |
| PETR4 | +1,089% | Energy |
All had initially crashed over 60%—proof that fundamentally sound companies can deliver extraordinary comebacks.
Bottom 20: When Recovery Never Came
Education services led the losers (4 stocks), followed by appliances, real estate, and healthcare. Tellingly:
- None were IDIV members
- 7 stocks fell >90% (Gafisa -99.7%)
- Only 4 saw any recovery from 2020 lows
Key Lessons From Six Years
1.: The biggest winners also had the steepest drops
2.: IDIV stocks avoided the worst losses
3.: Commodities and utilities outperformed discretionary
4.: Strong got stronger, weak disappeared
FAQ: Your Burning Questions Answered
Which stock had the highest returns?
Prio (PRIO3) delivered +413% from Feb 2020-Feb 2026, with a staggering +1,971% from March 2020 lows.
Did any education stocks survive?
Only Ser Educacional (SEER3) eked out a 0.18% gain from 2020 lows—most collapsed completely.
Why did Petrobras perform so well?
The oil giant benefited from both the commodity supercycle and disciplined cost controls post-pandemic.
