RD Saúde (RADL3) Rides a Rollercoaster with Q3 2025 Earnings: What Analysts Are Saying
- The Earnings Rollercoaster Explained
- Analyst Takeaways: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
- Valuation and Forward Outlook
- Q&A: Your Burning RADL3 Questions Answered
RD Saúde's stock (RADL3) took investors on a wild ride this Wednesday (November 5, 2025) as the market digested its Q3 2025 earnings report. Starting the day as the worst performer on the Ibovespa with a 5.75% drop to R$18.36, the pharmacy chain's shares dramatically reversed course by midday to close 1.13% higher at R$19.70. This volatility came despite the company posting solid numbers - 19.3% YoY growth in adjusted net income (R$402M) and 12.2% EBITDA growth (R$909.3M). Analysts remain bullish, with most maintaining "Buy" ratings and price targets suggesting 18-23% upside potential, though some caution that high expectations were already priced in.
The Earnings Rollercoaster Explained
November 5, 2025 will be remembered as a day of whiplash for RADL3 investors. The stock opened sharply lower despite what appeared to be strong headline numbers - a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news." By 12:48 PM Brasília time however, bargain hunters had stepped in, recognizing that the 19.3% net income growth and 12.2% EBITDA expansion actually represented solid execution in a challenging retail environment. The BTCC research team notes this pattern isn't unusual for high-expectation stocks where investors scrutinize whether results meet elevated forecasts rather than just showing absolute growth.
Analyst Takeaways: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Most analysts agreed the results were fundamentally strong but came with caveats:
- BTG Pactual called it "solid" but noted expectations had already adjusted upward in recent months
- Ágora Investimentos highlighted 15.5% retail sales growth powered by same-store sales and digital channels
- Safra praised cost controls that offset headwinds like rising theft in Southeast Brazil
- XP flagged weakness in the 4Bio segment (17% sales decline) from losing a key lab customer
Valuation and Forward Outlook
With the stock already up significantly year-to-date, analysts debated whether RADL3 still offers value:
| Brokerage | Rating | Price Target | Upside Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ágora/Bradesco BBI | Buy | R$24.00 | 23.20% |
| BTG Pactual | Buy | R$24.00 | 23.20% |
| Safra | Buy | R$23.00 | 18.07% |
| XP | Neutral | R$20.00 | 2.67% |
Bradesco analysts remain optimistic about valuation, GLP-1 generics potential, and easier comparable periods ahead. BTG sees RD as a long-term growth story that international investors still find attractive for Brazilian retail exposure.
Q&A: Your Burning RADL3 Questions Answered
Why did RADL3 stock drop initially despite good earnings?
This was a classic "sell the news" reaction where extremely high expectations weren't quite met, especially on EBITDA margins. The market wanted perfection and got "merely" good results instead.
What's driving RD Saúde's growth?
Three key drivers: 1) Same-store sales growth (15.5% YoY), 2) Digital channel expansion, and 3) Cost control measures that maintained margins despite inflationary pressures.
Is the 4Bio segment a concern?
Potentially - the 17% sales decline bears watching, though it currently represents a small portion of overall revenue. Management will need to demonstrate they can stabilize this business.
Where might the stock go from here?
Most analysts see upside to the R$23-24 range (18-23% from current levels), though XP's more cautious R$20 target suggests limited near-term potential. Much depends on holiday season performance.
