25% of Bitcoin Treasuries Now Trade Below Their BTC Holdings – What’s Next?
- Why Are Bitcoin Treasuries Underwater?
- The MicroStrategy Domino Effect
- A Silver Lining for Bitcoin?
- FAQ: Your Bitcoin Treasury Questions Answered
A surprising trend has emerged in the crypto market: one in four bitcoin treasuries now has a market capitalization lower than the value of their Bitcoin holdings. This phenomenon, highlighted by K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde, signals potential trouble for these firms, especially smaller players like Twenty One Capital and KindlyMD. Meanwhile, even industry giant MicroStrategy faces shrinking premiums. Could this slowdown in corporate BTC buying actually benefit the broader market? Let’s dive into the data and implications.
Why Are Bitcoin Treasuries Underwater?
The crypto market’s recent volatility has created a bizarre situation where 25% of Bitcoin-holding companies now trade below their Net Asset Value (NAV). When a firm’s NAV ratio falls below 1 (meaning its BTC holdings exceed its market cap), it loses the ability to issue new shares for Bitcoin purchases without diluting existing shareholders.
Vetle Lunde explains:This creates a vicious cycle – the more they buy, the worse their stock performs.
The MicroStrategy Domino Effect
Even Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy isn’t immune. Their mNAV premium has collapsed to 1.26 (from 3.8 in April 2025), the lowest since March 2024. This explains why their famous weekly Bitcoin purchases have become less aggressive recently.
The most extreme case? KindlyMD (ticker: NAKA) has seen its stock crater 90% since May 2025, with mNAV plunging from 75 to just 0.7. Other notable strugglers include Semler Scientific and The Smarter Web Company, both now trading below their Bitcoin value.
A Silver Lining for Bitcoin?
Paradoxically, this corporate buying slowdown might benefit Bitcoin overall. With treasuries sidelined, demand is shifting to more organic sources:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs (which saw $1.2B inflows last week according to TradingView)
- Retail investors returning after summer doldrums
- Institutional players accumulating at current levels
The average mNAV across all Bitcoin treasuries now stands at 2.8, down from April’s 3.8 peak. This normalization suggests the market is maturing beyond corporate speculation.
FAQ: Your Bitcoin Treasury Questions Answered
What does NAV mean for Bitcoin companies?
NAV (Net Asset Value) compares a company’s Bitcoin holdings to its market cap. When NAV
Why can’t these companies just stop buying Bitcoin?
Many built their entire business model around BTC accumulation. Stopping purchases could trigger even steeper stock declines as investors question their purpose.
Is this situation bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
Short-term bearish (less corporate demand), but potentially long-term bullish as ownership becomes more distributed. As Vetle Lunde notes: "Healthy markets need diverse buyers."
