Russia’s External Public Debt Surpasses $60 Billion for the First Time in Two Decades

• How High Is Russia’s External Public Debt in 2026?
• Why Is Russia’s Debt Rising Now?
• What’s the Government’s Take?
• Historical Context: How Does 2026 Compare?
• FAQs About Russia’s Debt Surge

Russia’s external public debt has crossed the $60 billion mark for the first time in 20 years, according to official data. While Moscow claims this is among the lowest figures for developed nations, analysts warn that the debt-to-GDP ratio is the critical metric to watch. The surge comes amid a costly war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, pushing Russia’s sovereign debt to its highest level since 2006. Here’s a deep dive into the numbers, the government’s stance, and what it means for the economy.

How High Is Russia’s External Public Debt in 2026?

As of February 1, 2026, Russia’s external public debt stood at $61.9 billion, according to the Ministry of Finance. This marks the first time since 2006 that the figure has exceeded $60 billion. Back then, the debt peaked at $76.5 billion before dropping to $52 billion a year later. For context, in early 2011, the debt was just $39.7 billion—showing how much the financial landscape has shifted.

The debt includes obligations owed by the federal government, local authorities, and public institutions to foreign states, banks, and international organizations. Notably, it excludes private-sector liabilities. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) estimates the country’s total external debt at $319.8 billion as of January 1, 2026—a 10.4% increase since early 2025. The CBR attributes this rise to the rouble’s appreciation and increased borrowing by Russian corporations.

Why Is Russia’s Debt Rising Now?

The uptick is partly due to last year’s yuan-denominated bond issuances by the Finance Ministry, which raised significant foreign currency reserves. Alexander Abramov, head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Financial Institutions and Markets at a Russian public university, downplayed concerns, calling the increase “slight but not critical.” He emphasized that Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio—not the absolute number—is the real indicator of fiscal health.

Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA, echoed this sentiment, noting that Russia’s economy has grown substantially over the past two decades while maintaining relatively low debt levels compared to other major economies. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has previously stated that Russia’s public debt should not exceed 20% of GDP. Currently, it hovers around 15%, well below that threshold.

What’s the Government’s Take?

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has framed the debt as “one of the lowest among developed countries,” arguing it allows Russia to fund government projects, meet social obligations, and support military needs. With the Ukraine conflict entering its fifth year on February 24, 2026, defense spending remains a significant drain on resources.

However, analysts caution that the debt’s composition matters. While sovereign debt is manageable, the broader external debt—including corporate and banking sectors—paints a more complex picture. The CBR’s data shows a $30 billion year-on-year increase, driven largely by currency revaluation and corporate borrowing.

Historical Context: How Does 2026 Compare?

Russia’s debt trajectory has been volatile. After hitting $76.5 billion in 2006, it fell sharply and stayed below $60 billion until now. The current rebound reflects both economic pressures and strategic borrowing. For instance, the shift to yuan bonds reduces reliance on Western currencies, a MOVE accelerated by sanctions.

Yet, the debt remains far below levels seen in the U.S. or EU. As Abramov put it, “The key is keeping debt under 20% of GDP—a rule Moscow seems committed to.” Whether that holds amid prolonged geopolitical tensions is the billion-dollar question.

FAQs About Russia’s Debt Surge

What is Russia’s external public debt in 2026?

As of February 2026, Russia’s external public debt reached $61.9 billion, the highest since 2006.

How does Russia’s debt compare to other countries?

Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is around 15%, lower than most developed nations. The U.S., for example, has a ratio exceeding 120%.

Why did the debt spike in 2026?

Factors include yuan bond issuances, rouble revaluation, and corporate borrowing. Sanctions have also reshaped debt strategies.

Is Russia’s debt sustainable?

Analysts say yes, as long as the debt-to-GDP ratio stays below 20%. Current levels are deemed manageable.