Wall Street Sees Modest Rebound as Long-Term Rates Surge: Key Takeaways from November 2025

• Why Are Markets Showing This Cautious Optimism?
• What's Driving the Surge in Treasury Yields?
• Which Stocks Are Leading the Charge?
• Which Companies Disappointed Investors?
• What Do the Employment Numbers Tell Us?
• Bank of America's Bold New Targets
• What's Next for Markets?
• Frequently Asked Questions

Wall Street showed cautious Optimism in early November 2025, with major indices posting modest gains amid a surprising surge in long-term Treasury yields. The financial markets responded positively to stronger-than-expected service sector data, while corporate earnings painted a mixed picture - with McDonald's and AMD delivering standout performances despite some misses. Here's your comprehensive breakdown of what moved markets this week.

Why Are Markets Showing This Cautious Optimism?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.13% to 47,146.69 points while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.50% to 23,464.44 points by late afternoon trading. This modest rebound comes after several weeks of volatility, suggesting investors remain wary but are finding selective opportunities. The BTCC research team notes that market sentiment appears to be stabilizing after the recent correction, though trading volumes remain below average for this time of year.

What's Driving the Surge in Treasury Yields?

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 6.4 basis points to 4.153%, marking its highest level since August 2025. This movement came after the Institute for Supply Management reported its non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in October from 50.7 in September, significantly beating the 50 consensus estimate. The new orders index, a forward-looking indicator, surged to 56.2 from 50.4 - its highest reading since October 2024.

"The services data clearly caught the market off guard," noted a BTCC market strategist. "While manufacturing has shown weakness, the much larger services sector continues to demonstrate resilience, forcing traders to reconsider their rate cut expectations for early 2026."

Which Stocks Are Leading the Charge?

McDonald's emerged as a surprising winner, with shares climbing 2.06% to €305.338 despite missing earnings expectations. The fast-food giant reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $3.22 per share versus $3.23 a year earlier and below the $3.33 consensus. However, investors focused on the positive - comparable store sales growth, particularly in the crucial U.S. market, and better-than-expected adjusted operating income of $3.396 billion (up 3% year-over-year).

Other notable movers included:

• AMD (+3.8%): Beat earnings expectations despite disappointing data center profits
• Amgen (+2.1%): Posted strong quarterly results that exceeded analyst forecasts
• Rivian (+5.2%): Reported 78.26% revenue growth to $1.558 billion

Which Companies Disappointed Investors?

Not all earnings reports brought good news. Pinterest shares plummeted 18% in pre-market trading after issuing disappointing revenue guidance for the current quarter. The image-sharing platform expects revenue between $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, below the $1.33 billion consensus.

Super Micro Computer also faced investor wrath after reporting disappointing earnings. The server specialist saw Q1 adjusted EPS plunge to $0.35 from $0.73 a year earlier, with revenue falling 15.5% to $5.02 billion against expectations of $5.83 billion.

What Do the Employment Numbers Tell Us?

The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October according to ADP, a significant reversal from the 32,000 jobs lost in September. This beat economist expectations of 32,000 new jobs, suggesting the labor market may be regaining some momentum after summer softness.

S&P Global's composite PMI came in at 54.6 versus 53.9 in September, though slightly below the 54.8 consensus. The services PMI component improved to 54.8 from 54.2, demonstrating continued expansion but at a more moderate pace than the 55.2 forecast.

Bank of America's Bold New Targets

In a notable strategic shift, Bank of America raised its medium-term return on tangible equity (ROTE) target to 16-18% from 12-15% previously. The bank now aims for 15% ROTE in the short term (versus 15.4% in Q3) and expects at least 12% EPS growth medium-term, up from its prior 10-12% range.

What's Next for Markets?

With the Fed's November meeting behind us and earnings season hitting its stride, investors will be closely watching:

• Upcoming inflation data releases
• Geopolitical developments affecting energy prices
• Consumer spending trends heading into the holiday season

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Treasury yields rise despite the stock market rebound?

The yield increase reflects stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly in the services sector, which has caused traders to reassess expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

How significant is McDonald's earnings miss?

While the EPS miss grabbed headlines, investors focused on the company's underlying operational strength, particularly in comparable store sales and operating income metrics.

What explains Rivian's strong performance despite posting losses?

Investors rewarded Rivian for its 78% revenue growth and improved margins, seeing progress in the EV maker's path to profitability.