SEC Throws Cold Water on XRP ETF Hopes—Polymarket Odds Plunge

The SEC just slammed the brakes on the XRP ETF hype train—and Polymarket traders are bailing fast.

Regulatory roulette strikes again

No surprise here: Wall Street's least favorite crypto is getting the treatment it's come to expect. The SEC's latest opposition filing sent XRP ETF approval probabilities tumbling on prediction markets—because nothing screams 'healthy market' like regulators playing whack-a-mole with innovation.

Meanwhile, institutional investors are left holding bags of 'compliant' shitcoins the SEC actually likes. Maybe next cycle, XRP army.

Back in June, the HYPE around XRP was extremely bullish as approval rating also touched 93% amid rumors of Blackrock’s involvement. 

Crenshaw has been a vocal opponent of crypto-based ETFs for quite some time, and her ongoing opposition has unnerved markets, particularly after she cast a “no” vote for all 13 crypto ETF proposals in the latest SEC meeting. It is the lowest odds of approval of an XRP ETF since January.

MS. "Vote NO for Crypto ETF Caroline Crenshaw" can't leave soon enough. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner official position expired on June 5, 2024, however, SEC commissioners are permitted to continue serving in a holdover capacity for up to 18… pic.twitter.com/YZtocpa9a8

Balchunas: “It’s an Overreaction”

In spite of the volatility in the market, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas claims there’s nothing to worry about. He holds a 95% chance of approval and is labeling the response an overcorrection.

Interesting, trades reporting how Polymarket odds of XRP ETF approval went down to 62% after the votes were disclosed showing Crenshaw voting no, but a) she's gonna vote no on EVERYTHING and b) it's meaningless, she's outnumbered = we haven't changed our odds, still at 95%. https://t.co/TamMn8DHVh pic.twitter.com/Ip9G748HrU

Balchunas noted Crenshaw is usually the sole voice of dissent on crypto matters and is routinely outvoted by the other commissioners. On July 29, for example, she was the sole “no” vote on a slate of 13 crypto ETF approvals.

Global Demand for XRP ETFs Increasing

Despite the uncertainty in the U.S., momentum is shifting globally. Japan’s SBI Holdings, a close ally of Ripple, has already submitted an application for an ETF containing Bitcoin and XRP.

While Commissioner Crenshaw’s opposition introduces short-term ambiguity, the general trend at the SEC is still leaning toward increased ETF approval, according to experts. 

With Ripple having met the agency’s listing requirements and international demand increasing, most are convinced the XRP ETF remains on track albeit with a few more twists and turns.

Also Read: Japan’s SBI Holdings Files to Launch Bitcoin, XRP and Gold ETFs