Bitcoin’s Million-Dollar Moon Shot: Hayes Doubles Down on 2028 Price Target as U.S.-China Tensions Escalate

Arthur Hayes just threw gasoline on the crypto bull case—predicting Bitcoin smashes $1M within three years as geopolitical fault lines widen. The ex-BitMEX CEO’s latest provocation ties BTC’s trajectory directly to deteriorating U.S.-China relations, arguing fiat currency instability will force the ultimate hard money play.

Wall Street’s quants are already running the numbers: At current adoption curves, Hayes’ target implies a $20T market cap—roughly the GDP of the entire U.S. economy. Cynics note this conveniently aligns with his forthcoming book release, but the macro math keeps getting harder to ignore.

One hedge fund MD quipped: ‘When crypto bros and DC hawks share the same doomscroll, maybe it’s time to audit those T-bill exposures.’ The clock starts now.

A Hollow U.S.-China Deal?

But it’s not just monetary policy fueling his bullish thesis. Hayes also points to geopolitics — specifically, the tense but theatrical trade relationship between the U.S. and China.

As both countries move toward what he calls a “surface-level” trade agreement, Hayes sees it more as political theatre than actual economic reform. “It’s going to be a deal on the surface,” he said. “Trump needs to prove he’s been tough on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood up to the WHITE man.”

He believes the U.S. will likely avoid imposing politically sensitive tariffs and instead turn to capital controls like taxes on foreign investment or withholding taxes on gains from U.S. assets. These quiet tools, he says, are more effective and less visible to the public eye.

“The only real policy that actually works is capital controls,” Hayes said, suggesting the U.S. could even experiment with forced bond swaps or ultra-long-dated debt.

Why? Because telling Americans to consume less just won’t fly politically. “Americans don’t like to do hard things. They don’t want to be told that you have to consume less,” he added.

China Has No Other Option

Despite the tension, Hayes says China will continue buying U.S. assets. The dependency runs too deep. “They have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they’re buying off of America… but mathematically, they just can’t stop.”

In his view, this means even more money sloshing through the financial system, and bitcoin soaking up the excess.

Inside Hayes’ Portfolio

Arthur Hayes isn’t just talking the talk — he’s all in. Roughly 60–65% of his portfolio is parked in Bitcoin, 20% in Ethereum, and the rest sprinkled across what he cheekily calls “quality shitcoins.”

Why? He thinks the market’s finally waking up to real utility. People are done with flashy coins that don’t do anything.

Investors, he says, are done with tokens that don’t actually do anything. “We are in fundamentals season. People are tired of coins that don’t do anything,” Hayes said.

In short, for Hayes, Bitcoin’s rise to \$1 million won’t come from hype, but from macroeconomic reality — a system overflowing with dollars, political posturing, and a global appetite for hard assets that can’t be diluted.

Also Read: US Won’t Buy More Bitcoin Due to Debt, Says Arthur Hayes