Analysts Speculate on LIT Token Valuation Ahead of Lighter Airdrop

Will the LIT token ignite or fizzle? Analysts are placing their bets as the Lighter airdrop approaches, sparking a fresh wave of valuation debates across crypto forums.

The Airdrop Catalyst

Free token distributions often trigger volatile price action—initial hype meets sell pressure as recipients cash out. The LIT airdrop follows this familiar playbook, putting speculative models to the test.

Valuation in a Vacuum

Without hard metrics or protocol revenue, analysts lean on comparables and network potential. It’s the classic crypto dance: pricing promise before product—because who needs fundamentals when you have narrative?

The Professional Gamble

Traders are sizing up entry points, weighing airdrop sell-offs against long-term utility claims. One cynical fund manager quipped, 'We're valuing digital coupons for a restaurant that hasn't opened yet.'

Markets will deliver the verdict soon. Will LIT find its flame, or get snuffed out by reality?

Lighter airdrop farming

Launched publicly in October 2025 after a private beta, Lighter has rapidly emerged as a fierce competitor to established players like Hyperliquid. With trading volumes surging, often reaching billions daily, and features like verifiable on-chain matching, the platform has attracted significant attention. 

Lighter’s growth has been propelled by its points program, a key mechanism for rewarding user participation and farming potential airdrop eligibility. The program spanned across two seasons. The first one covered the private beta from January to September 2025, onboarding around 100,000–110,000 users and second ran from October 1 to December 31, 2025, coinciding with the public mainnet launch. The next season added hundreds of thousands more users and focused on anti-Sybil measures to prevent wash trading.

Points were awarded on a weekly basis for trading activity, liquidity provision, competitions, and referrals, totaling roughly 12.5 million across both seasons. A recent dashboard update allows users to allocate their airdrop across up to four wallets, with a deadline of December 26, 2025, further signaling imminent distribution. 

As per DeFillama data, Lighter currently has a total value locked (TVL) of $1.4 billion. The past 30 days trading volume for the platform sits at $2.94 billion with its open interest (OI) sitting at $1.60 billion. 

Predictions around Lighter on Polymarket

Amid Lighter being the hot topic among crypto traders, prediction platform Polymarket has also become a hotspot for betting on Lighter’s timeline and valuation. Market data currently show over 86% odds for the airdrop and TGE before December 31, 2025. The trading volume for this bet has exceeded above $9 million. 

A separate market speculation on post-launch fully diluted valuation (FDV) also gained significant attention. The probabilities for >$1 billion stand high at 87%, while >$3 billion and >$4 billion have seen sharp increases following recent developments. This prediction has brought over $35.5 million in trading volume. 

Pre-market LIT token trading on Hyperliquid

In a notable move, Hyperliquid listed LIT-USDC perpetuals for pre-market trading on December 22, 2025. The listing announcement was quite unexpected as Lighter is considered a direct rival to Hyperliquid. 

By community request, Hyperliquid has listed LIT-USDC hyperps. You can now long or short the unlaunched Lighter token with up to 3x leverage. pic.twitter.com/f5ADrwFgrX

Within hours of listing, LIT token quickly climbed above $4 with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) reaching a new high of $4.3 billion. Conversely, its open interest and trading volume also reached millions, with leverage up to 3x enabling longs and shorts positions on token’s pre-market price. 

Also read: Hyperliquid Refutes Claims on $362M Shortfall and Insider Trading