Gold & Silver Dominated 2025 - But Don’t Count Bitcoin Out Yet

Precious metals just delivered their best year in a generation, while crypto's flagship asset keeps defying the skeptics. Here's why both narratives are still unfolding.

The Timeless Allure of Tangible Assets

When traditional markets wobble, investors still flock to the classics. Gold and silver's 2025 surge wasn't about innovation—it was about fear, inflation, and that primal urge to hold something real. Central banks kept buying, ETFs ballooned, and the 'barbarous relic' suddenly looked like the smartest trade in town. A cynical take? It's the ultimate safe-haven play for portfolios built on digital promises and financial engineering.

Bitcoin's Unfinished Revolution

Meanwhile, the original cryptocurrency refuses to exit stage left. It didn't just survive another cycle of regulatory scrutiny and volatility—it absorbed the blows. Institutional adoption didn't reverse; it matured. The network hash rate hit new peaks, signaling underlying strength that price charts sometimes miss. Bitcoin isn't competing with gold on the same field anymore; it's carving its own territory as a non-sovereign, programmable store of value.

Two Different Games, One Common Thread

One asset class wins on millennia of trust. The other wins by bypassing trust entirely. Their simultaneous success in 2025 points to a deeper, fragmented market sentiment: a loss of faith in middle-ground alternatives. Investors aren't choosing sides—they're hedging against different versions of the same systemic uncertainty. The playbook is splitting, and both gold and Bitcoin are writing chapters.

However, to declare crypto “dead” in the face of gold’s ascent would be a fundamental misreading of the structural shifts occurring in global finance. The establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve via Executive Order 14233 in March 2025  and the continued institutional accumulation by entities like MicroStrategy and state governments suggest that Bitcoin’s current slump is a cyclical volatility event rather than a terminal decline. The divergence is better understood as a rotation within the “sound money” trade, where sovereigns and conservative capital favor the tangible certainty of gold, while risk-tolerant capital and forward-looking corporate treasuries continue to build positions in digital scarcity.

This report provides an exhaustive analysis of the drivers behind this divergence, the shifting strategies of corporate and sovereign treasuries, and a detailed forecast for 2026. It argues that while 2025 was the year of the “Tangible SAFE Haven” (Gold/Silver), 2026 is poised to be a year of “Asset Coexistence,” where industrial imperatives for silver and the institutionalization of Bitcoin reshape portfolio allocations in a world increasingly skeptical of fiat currency.

Macroeconomic context of late 2025: Fiscal dominance and fractured geopolitics

To understand the divergent paths of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin, one must first analyze the macroeconomic environment that characterized the latter half of 2025. The global economy did not merely face inflation or recession; it faced a unique convergence of “fiscal dominance,” geopolitical fragmentation, and the weaponization of trade policies that forced a re-evaluation of what constitutes a “risk-free” asset.

The return of fiscal dominance and the debasement trade

The primary driver for the surge in hard assets has been the market’s realization that fiscal deficits in major economies, particularly the United States, are becoming unmanageable without currency debasement. The “debasement trade”—investing in assets that hold value as fiat currency purchasing power erodes—became the dominant strategy of 2025.

Fiscal dominance occurs when monetary policy becomes subservient to fiscal policy; central banks are forced to keep interest rates low or expand their balance sheets to ensure the government can service its debt, regardless of inflation targets. In late 2025, this fear became acute. With U.S. debt levels continuing to climb and interest payments consuming a larger portion of the federal budget, the market began to price in a scenario where the Federal Reserve WOULD be forced to monetize debt perpetually.

However, the market chose its vehicle for this trade carefully. Gold, with its millennia-long history and lack of counterparty risk, became the primary beneficiary. The fear of “sovereign debt issues” acting as a black swan event drove capital into physical bullion. Unlike previous cycles where real yields (i.e. interest rates adjusted for inflation) dictated gold prices, 2025 saw a breakdown in this correlation. Gold rallied even as nominal rates remained elevated, signaling that investors were pricing in a long-term credit risk of the issuer (the U.S. Treasury) rather than just the opportunity cost of holding metal. This decoupling is historic; it suggests that Gold is no longer trading just as an inflation hedge, but as a hedge against the solvency of the fiat system itself.

Geopolitical fragmentation and the weaponization of finance

The freezing of Russian assets in 2022 initiated a trend that accelerated significantly in 2025: the MOVE away from Western financial infrastructure by Global South nations. Central banks, fearing sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar, aggressively diversified into Gold. This was not merely investment; it was a matter of national security.

This environment heavily favored Gold and Silver, which can be kept physically in custody within national borders and traded bilaterally without passing through any clearinghouses. Bitcoin, despite its censorship-resistant properties at the protocol level, is still perceived by many sovereigns as volatile and susceptible to regulatory chokepoints in Western-dominated on-ramps and exchanges. The transparency of the blockchain, while a feature for auditability, acts as a bug for nations seeking to obscure their reserve accumulation from Western surveillance. Thus, in 2025, the “sovereign put” was exercised in Gold, not crypto.

The liquidity vs. crisis hedge distinction

A critical insight from the price action of 2025 is the stark distinction between a “liquidity hedge” and a “crisis hedge.”

• Crisis hedge (Gold): This asset performs best when the system itself is under threat, geopolitics fracture, and fear is the dominant sentiment. It is the asset of last resort when trust in institutions collapses.
• Liquidity hedge (Bitcoin): This asset performs best when money supply is expanding, risk appetite is high, and technology stocks are soaring. It is a “call option on the future,” thriving on liquidity injections.

In late 2025, as trade wars intensified (specifically new U.S.-China tariff threats) and geopolitical tensions ROSE in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, the market sought crisis insurance. This triggered a massive rotation out of Bitcoin (risk-on) and into Gold (risk-off). When the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) spiked and tariff headlines hit the tape, algorithms dumped Bitcoin alongside the Nasdaq, while capital fled into the sanctuary of bullion. This behavior reinforces that, at this stage of its maturation, Bitcoin is still correlated with the liquidity cycle, whereas Gold is correlated with the fear cycle.

The inflation paradox

Inflation in 2025 presented a paradox. While headline inflation cooled slightly in some regions, “sticky” inflation persisted in services and wages. More importantly, inflation expectations became unanchored. The market began to believe that 3-4% inflation would be the new policy target, explicitly or implicitly, to erode the real value of sovereign debt.

In this environment, Gold shone as the proven historic hedge. Bitcoin, which has a theoretically inflation-resistant hard cap, failed to attract the same flows. This is partly due to the “high beta” nature of crypto; in a high-rate environment where cash yields 4-5%, the opportunity cost of holding a volatile asset like Bitcoin is higher than holding Gold, which is viewed as a currency substitute. The breakdown of the correlation between Bitcoin and inflation expectations in late 2025 was a key driver of its underperformance relative to the metals.

Comparative asset performance YTD 2025

Gold: The sovereign monarch and the new reserve standard

Gold’s performance in 2025 was nothing short of historic. Rising approximately 68% YTD, the metal did not just appreciate; it underwent a repricing that suggests a fundamental shift in its role within the global monetary system. It effectively re-monetized itself, asserting its role as the ultimate settlement asset in a multipolar world. 

Following are the factors behind gold’s meteoric rise in 2025;

Central bank accumulation: The new floor

The single most important driver of gold’s ascent has been the relentless, price-insensitive buying by central banks. The year 2025 marked the fourth consecutive year of massive accumulation, shattering records and fundamentally altering the supply-demand mechanics of the market. 

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been the whale in the market. While official data shows consistent purchasing, investigative reports and analysis of import data suggest the true scale is far larger.

• Official data: PBOC’s gold reserves officially reached roughly 2,300 tonnes by late 2025, with consistent monthly additions.
• The “shadow” reserves: Credible analysis from institutions like Société Générale and industry insiders suggests China’s actual purchases may be higher than reported, potentially bringing their true reserves closer to 5,000 tonnes. By funneling Gold through sovereign wealth funds, state-owned banks, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China is able to accumulate massive quantities without immediately spiking the price or alerting the market to the full extent of its diversification.
• Strategic intent: This is not a trade; it is a strategy to de-dollarize. By holding gold, China reduces its vulnerability to U.S. sanctions and prepares the Yuan for a larger role in international trade settlement. The accumulation of Gold is the physical backing for a post-dollar trade bloc.

It is not just China. A bloc of nations including Poland, India, Turkey, Brazil, and Singapore have been aggressive buyers, as per Trading Economics data. 

• Poland: The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has explicitly stated its goal to increase Gold to 20% of its total reserves, buying aggressively throughout 2025 to safeguard national financial sovereignty against geopolitical instability in Europe.
• India: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) moved significant quantities of Gold from storage in the UK back to domestic vaults, a trend of “repatriation” seen globally. This signals a distrust of foreign custody and a desire for physical possession.
• The “Central Bank Put“: This consistent buying creates a “floor” under the Gold price. Unlike retail investors who may sell during price dips or profit-take at highs, central banks buy for strategic duration. They are “strong hands” that effectively permanently remove supply from the market, tightening the float available for private investors.

Institutional re-rating and Western capital flows

For the first half of the decade, Western institutional investors largely ignored Gold, favoring the growth of equities and the yield of bonds. Late 2025 saw a dramatic reversal of this trend.

• ETF inflows: After years of outflows, Western exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, saw a resurgence of inflows in Q3 and Q4 2025. This was driven by portfolio managers realizing that a traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio was insufficient protection against a stagflationary or fiscal shock environment.
• The “Fear” allocation: Wealth managers and family offices began increasing Gold allocations from a tactical 0-2% to a structural 5-10%. The narrative shifted from “Gold is a dead rock” to “Gold is the only asset with no counterparty risk”.

The breakdown of correlations: A new paradigm

Historically, Gold moves inversely to the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Real Yields. When rates rise, Gold (which yields nothing) typically falls.

In 2025, this correlation broke. Gold rose alongside a relatively strong dollar and high interest rates.

• Multidimensional polarization: J.P. Morgan describes this as “multidimensional polarization,” where Gold is trading on a new variable: the credit risk of the U.S. government.
• Implication: This suggests that the market believes the U.S. fiscal situation is so precarious that higher rates will actually cause a crisis (by exploding interest expense) rather than solving inflation. Gold is pricing in the eventual need for Yield Curve Control or a similar intervention, regardless of what the Fed says today.

Silver: The industrial titan and monetary phoenix

If Gold was the superstar of 2025, Silver was the hyper-growth phenomenon. Rising nearly 130% and breaching the psychological and technical barrier of $60/oz, Silver’s rally is underpinned by a structural supply deficit that appears nearly impossible to resolve in the NEAR term. 

Silver is effectively firing on two engines: first, a monetary engine driven by Gold’s breakout, and second, an industrial engine driven by the green energy and AI revolutions. 

The industrial demand shock: AI, solar, and EVs

Silver is unique with its dual identity as a precious metal and a critical industrial input. In 2025, three pillars of industrial demand accelerated simultaneously, creating a demand shock that overwhelmed supply.

Solar energy remains the dominant industrial driver.

• Technological shift: The shift to newer, more efficient solar cell technologies (like TOPCon and HJT) requires significantly more Silver paste per cell compared to previous generations. While manufacturers have attempted “thrifting,” which in this sense refers to using less Silver, they have hit technical limits where further reduction compromises efficiency.
• Volume growth: The sheer volume of new solar installations globally, particularly in China and Europe, continues to drive consumption. Solar demand alone now consumes a massive percentage of annual mine supply, and this is projected to nearly double by 2030.

A critical and under-discussed driver emerging in 2025 is the role of Silver in the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out.

• Conductivity is King: AI data centers require massive amounts of power and generate immense heat. Silver is the most conductive metal on earth. It is increasingly essential in high-performance connectors, busbars, and thermal management systems within AI servers.
• Demand multiplier: Estimates suggest that AI-specific hardware consumes two to three times more Silver than traditional server hardware. As the “AI Arms Race” between corporations and nations intensifies, the demand for silver in this sector has become price-insensitive—and tech giants will pay whatever is necessary to secure the materials for their chips and centers.

As the global automotive fleet electrifies, Silver consumption in circuitry, contacts, and battery management systems continues to rise. EV demand for silver rose by an estimated 20% in 2025, creating another persistent drain on physical stocks.

The structural deficit and supply inelasticity

The Silver Institute forecasts a fifth consecutive year of massive supply deficits in 2025, with deficits expected to persist through 2026.

• Inelastic supply: The most critical factor in the silver market is that ~80% of Silver is mined as a by-product of Lead, Zinc, Copper, and Gold. This means primary Silver supply cannot simply “respond” to higher prices. If the price of Zinc falls, a Zinc mine might close, reducing the Silver supply even if Silver prices are skyrocketing. This inelasticity makes supply shocks particularly acute.
• Mining challenges: Key producing nations like Mexico and Peru have faced regulatory headwinds, labor disputes, and declining ore grades. Russia, another major producer, remains sanctioned, complicating the flow of metal to Western markets.
• Inventory crisis: The deficit has been met by drawing down above-ground stockpiles. Inventories in London (LBMA) and Shanghai have plummeted to multi-year lows. There is a genuine physical tightness in the market; and the “buffer” that existed for years has already been eroded.

Sovereign entry: The Saudi pivot

A landmark development in 2025 was the entry of sovereign wealth funds into the Silver market, a domain previously reserved almost exclusively for gold.

• Saudi Arabia’s strategic move: The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) made strategic allocations to silver, utilizing ETFs like iShares Silver Trust (SLV) to gain exposure. This is a profound shift. It represents a diversification play away from oil and dollar assets, but also a strategic industrial hedge. Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” relies heavily on massive solar energy projects; by buying Silver, they are hedging the future cost of their own infrastructure build-out.
• Russia and India: Both these nations have reportedly added physical Silver to their reserves, viewing it as an undervalued monetary asset relative to Gold and a way to diversify outside the NATO-sphere financial system.

Price forecasts: The path to triple digits?

Analysts have aggressively re-rated Silver forecasts based on these dynamics.

• Alan Hibbard (GoldSilver) has predicted a “triple-digit Silver” (>$100) in 2026 due to the exacerbation of the squeeze.
• Citigroup has set a base case of $62 and a bull case of $70 for 2026, citing the industrial rotation.
• J.P. Morgan forecasts an average of $56/oz in 2026, reflecting a sustained high plateau.
• The consensus is that $50 is the new floor, and the volatility skewed to the upside could see rapid spikes as short sellers in the paper market are forced to cover against a lack of physical metal.

Bitcoin: The maturation pain and policy pivot

Bitcoin’s trajectory in late 2025 has been a source of confusion and frustration for many digital asset investors. After hitting an ATH of ~$126,200 in early October, the asset crashed nearly 29% to slide below $90,000, ending the year with negative momentum. 

But why did “Digital Gold” fail to rally alongside physical Gold during the geopolitical stress of Q4 2025? The answer lies in its evolving identity and the friction of its transition from a speculative asset to a strategic reserve.

The “risk-on” identity crisis

The October 2025 sell-off was triggered by a $19 billion liquidation event following the new U.S.-China tariff threats. This event revealed a critical truth: despite the “store of value” narrative, institutional algorithms and macro traders still treat Bitcoin as a high-beta technology stock.

• Correlations: When macro fear spikes (e.g., trade wars, conflict), liquidity is pulled from risk assets (Bitcoin, Nasdaq) and moved to traditional safety (Gold, Treasuries). Bitcoin currently behaves as a “liquidity sponge”—expanding when money is cheap—rather than a “panic bunker.”
• The “versus” trade: In late 2025, portfolio managers explicitly rotated out of Bitcoin and into Gold. The Gold/Bitcoin ratio spiked, signaling a preference for tangible safety over digital promise during times of acute uncertainty.

Institutional flows: Stickiness amidst the drop

A divergence occurred within the Bitcoin market itself: Price dropped, but ETF holdings remained remarkably resilient.

• The ETF shield: Despite a 36% price correction from the top, total Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) declined by less than 4% in Bitcoin terms. BlackRock’s IBIT actually increased its market share during the crash. This suggests that the new class of institutional holders (pension funds, advisers) are not panic selling. The selling pressure largely came from highly leveraged speculative traders in the futures market and crypto-native funds rotating capital.

• Slowing Demand: On-chain data indicates a contraction in demand growth in Q4 2025. The initial euphoria of the ETF launches has settled, and the market is digesting the supply overhang. The “easy money” phase of the cycle paused, requiring a new catalyst to drive the next leg up.

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: The sleeping giant

Perhaps the most significant, yet currently under-priced, development for Bitcoin’s future is Executive Order 14233, signed by the U.S. President Donald TRUMP in March 2025.

• The policy: The order officially establishes a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “United States Digital Asset Stockpile.” It mandates that the U.S. government will not sell its seized Bitcoin holdings (currently over 200,000 BTC) and creates a framework to acquire more, with a long-term target of holding 5% of the total Bitcoin supply (approx. 1 million BTC).
• The lag effect: Why didn’t the price explode? The implementation involves a study period and legislative maneuvering (The BITCOIN Act). The market is skeptical of the timeline and execution. However, this represents a massive “put option” on the Bitcoin price long-term. If the U.S. government becomes a net buyer of 200,000+ BTC per year to build this reserve, the supply shock will be immense. The current slump is likely the final accumulation window before this policy begins to impact the order books in 2026.

The “four-year cycle” debate

Traditional Bitcoin analysis relies on the four-year halving cycle. However, 2025 broke the pattern by peaking early (October) and then corrected deeply.

• Broken cycle? Some analysts argue the cycle has accelerated or broken due to ETFs front-running the halving.
• Supercycle theory: Others, like Ark Invest and Bitwise, argue that we are entering a “supercycle” where volatility dampens, and price trends become more driven by structural flows than cyclical hype. They forecast that 2026 will see a resumption of the uptrend as the “Strategic Reserve” narrative moves from policy paper to actual purchasing.

The treasury shift: Will government and corporations move to treasuries?

Market watchers have asked: “Will the government and corporations move to Gold and Silver treasuries again?” The answer is a resounding “Yes.” However, the mechanisms differ between the metals and the digital realm. We are witnessing a bifurcation in treasury management strategies.

Sovereign wealth funds: The Gold/Silver pivot

We are witnessing a structural shift in how nations manage wealth, moving from “Return on Capital” to “Return of Capital.”

• The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF): As mentioned above, the PIF has aggressively moved into precious metals. Beyond the aforementioned Silver allocation, they have utilized ETFs like the SPDR J.P. Morgan Saudi Arabia Aggregate Bond ETF and engaged in direct commodity hedging. Their strategy is “Diversification Beyond Gold,” viewing Silver as a critical industrial input for their renewable energy ambitions. They are securing the molecules needed for their future economy, not just the money.
• Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global: Managing over $1.7 trillion, Norway maintains a massive equity portfolio but has shown increasing support for companies with Bitcoin treasuries. Notably, the fund voted in favor of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury strategy. While the fund itself is not yet buying direct Bitcoin, their tacit approval of corporate Bitcoin adoption is a major signal that sovereign money is becoming comfortable with digital assets on corporate balance sheets.
• The Global South: The BRICS bloc and emerging markets (Poland, Brazil, Kazakhstan) are effectively moving to a “Gold Standard” for reserves, reducing reliance on U.S. Treasuries. This is a defensive move against the weaponization of the dollar.

Corporate treasuries: The MicroStrategy vs. Tether Model

While Bitcoin made HYPE earlier this year, two distinct models of corporate treasury management emerged from it, offering a blueprint for 2026.

The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (now branded “Strategy”) holds over 671,000 BTC. However, late 2025 saw its stock underperform Bitcoin itself, down 45% YTD despite Bitcoin being flat/down slightly.

• The lesson: The market is questioning the sustainability of leveraged buying at all-time highs. While MicroStrategy remains the pioneer, the volatility of its stock relative to its holdings has deterred widespread imitation by conservative S&P 500 treasurers in the short term. Corporations are hesitant to adopt this high-volatility model until accounting standards and volatility dampen further. 

A fascinating trend identified in the research is the behavior of Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer.

• The new whale: In Q3 2025 alone, Tether purchased 26 tonnes of Gold, surpassing the purchases of most central banks. With 116 tonnes of Gold reserves, Tether now holds more Gold than the central banks of South Korea, Australia, or Greece. 
• The blueprint: Tether is essentially operating as a “corporate central bank.” It is not trusting U.S. Treasuries to back its dollar-peg entirely; it is diversifying into Gold.
• Implication: This is the convergence of crypto and metals. Tether proves that the future isn’t “Crypto vs. Gold” but “Crypto backed by Gold.” If other stablecoins or large cash-rich tech firms follow this “Tether Model,” corporate Gold demand could rival sovereign demand in 2026. This is the model most likely to be adopted by other corporations: using Gold to stabilize a digital balance sheet.

Comparative analysis: “Versus” or coexistence?

Is crypto dead in front of Gold and Silver? The market enthusiasm, institutional plays, and data suggests no, but the role of crypto is evolving and facing a temporary cyclical headwind that gold is not. 

The “versus” trade matrix

Investors are increasingly using the Gold/Bitcoin Ratio as a regime filter.

• High Geopolitical Risk / Fiscal Fear: Buy Gold. (Late 2025 scenario).
• Monetary Expansion / Risk-On: Buy Bitcoin. (Projected 2026 scenario).
• Industrial Growth / Green Energy: Buy Silver.

The “versus” narrative is driven by short-term capital flows. In reality, both assets are betting against the same outcome: fiat debasement. Gold is the defensive play (preserve wealth); Bitcoin is the offensive play (multiply wealth).

Volatility and maturity

Bitcoin’s volatility is decreasing over the long term, but it remains 4x more volatile than Gold. For corporate treasurers, this volatility is a hurdle. Gold offers stability with lower returns; Bitcoin offers asymmetric upside with high drawdown risk.

• Insight: Sovereigns prefer Gold for stability and sovereignty. Risk-tolerant corporations and younger demographics prefer Bitcoin. The “death” of crypto is a media narrative born of price action; the reality is a cyclical correction after a massive run-up.

Institutional adoption vectors 2025

Forecast for 2026: The year of coexistence

As 2025 ends, the outlook for 2026 is shaped by the expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, continued industrial demand, and the activation of U.S. crypto policy. 

Gold forecast 2026: The path to $5,000

The consensus among major banks (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan) and independent analysts are overwhelmingly bullish.

• Price target: $4,900 – $5,000 per ounce by year-end 2026.
• Primary drivers:
  • Relentless central bank buying: Projected to average 585 tonnes per quarter, creating a permanent deficit.
  • Fed rate cuts: Markets are pricing in two cuts in 2026, lowering the opportunity cost of holding metal.
  • Debt spiral fears: Continued U.S. deficits will keep the “debasement premium” high.

Silver forecast 2026: The breakout to $75-$100

Silver is expected to be the top performing asset of 2026, benefiting from the “Gold halo” effect and its own unique supply crunch.

• Price target: Base case $60-$70; Bull case $100+.
• Primary drivers:
  • The AI infrastructure boom: The upcoming year will see the realization of massive Silver demand for AI data centers, a demand source not present in previous cycles.
  • Supply cliff: The fifth year of deficit will deplete remaining efficient stockpiles in London and Shanghai.
  • Ratio compression: If Gold hits $5,000, the Gold/Silver ratio (currently high) will likely compress, acting as a slingshot for silver prices.

Bitcoin forecast 2026: The recovery and policy put

Despite the 2025 slump, 2026 is viewed as a recovery year, potentially breaking the “four-year cycle” curse through policy support.

• Price target: $150,000 (Standard Chartered/Bernstein revised targets) to new ATHs.
• Primary drivers:
  • U.S. policy implementation: The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Executive Order 14233) moving from paper to action. If the U.S. Treasury begins acquiring BTC, the psychological and physical impact on supply will be massive.
  • Halving aftershocks: Historical patterns suggest the true supply shock of the halving often manifests 12-18 months later (which aligns with 2026).
  • Institutional norm: The “Time-Weighted Average Price” (TWAP) buying by ETFs will resume as macro fears subside and risk appetite returns.

Bear case risks

• Gold/Silver: A sharp recession that crushes industrial demand could hurt silver. A resolution to geopolitical conflicts (peace in Ukraine/Gaza) could remove the “war premium” from gold.
• Bitcoin: Regulatory crackdowns in other jurisdictions or a failure of the U.S. Strategic Reserve to materialize could lead to further capitulation.

2026 forecast summary

Conclusion

The divergence of 2025 was not a failure of crypto, but a clarification of roles in a maturing asset class. In a world of fragmenting supply chains and weaponized finance, Gold has reclaimed its throne as the premier sovereign reserve asset—the “King” of the board. Silver has emerged as the essential strategic commodity for the future economy (AI/Energy)—the “Knight” with dual utility. 

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a maturation phase. It is transitioning from a speculative tech proxy to a recognized institutional asset. The “struggle” below $100k is likely a consolidation before the structural impacts of the U.S. Strategic Reserve policy take hold in 2026. It is not dead; it is dormant.

Will governments and corporations move to Gold and Silver treasuries? Yes. The trend is undeniable. The PIF, central banks, and even Tether have voted with their wallets.

So for the final time, is crypto dead? Essentially, no. It is seemingly taking a backseat during a period of “Safety First.” As the 2026 cycle turns toward liquidity expansion and the U.S. government formalizes its crypto stance, Bitcoin is poised to coexist alongside the metals.

While the winner of 2025 was Tangible, the winner of 2026 will likely be the Scarce—whether digital or physical. The astute investor will likely hold both, recognizing that they protect against different failures of the current system.